The Pittsburgh Pirates (20-11) wrap up a 3-game interleague series with the Tampa Bay Rays (25-6) Thursday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead series 2-0
The Pirates continue to lead the NL Central Division by 1½ games over the Milwaukee Brewers despite losing the 1st 2 games of this series. That’s because Milwaukee has been outscored in Colorado by a 10-3 margin in 2 losses themselves.
The current 3-game losing streak is a season high for the Pirates, and Pittsburgh has managed just 4 total runs scored during the skid. The Pirates have also failed to cover on the run line in the last 2 games as an underdog after an 8-0 run in the situation.
The AL East-leading Rays continue to boast the league’s best record, and they’re an impressive 8-1 in Game 3 of a series this season. The Over is on a 3-1 run for Tampa Bay, and the offense is averaging 8.3 runs per game (RPG) across the last 6 contests.
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Pirates at Rays projected starters
RHP Vince Velasquez vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Velasquez (4-2, 3.06 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 32 1/3 innings.
- Last start: W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 16-1 road rout of the Washington Nationals Saturday — his 4th consecutive quality start (QS)
- Road splits this season: 3-1, 2.38 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 6 ER), .207 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
- Was pounded for 5 ER, 6 H and 4 BB in just 2 2/3 IP against the Chicago White Sox April 8 in an 11-5 loss in his only interleague start this season
Elfin (3-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 9.0 K/9 in 21 IP innings.
- Last start: W, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road win vs. Chicago White Sox last time out April 28
- Home splits this season: 3-0, 2.81 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), .242 opponent batting average (OBA) in 3 starts
Pirates at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Rays -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-130) | Rays -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Pirates at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline
The Rays (-190) will set you back nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too rich for my blood for a standalone waged, or even as part of a multi-team parlay.
PASS, and look to the run line instead.
Run line/Against the spread
RAYS -1.5 (+105) are a much better play on the run line in this interleague series finale.
Tampa Bay has cashed as the favorite on the run line in each of the 1st 2 games in this series, while going 4-1 in the last 5 games overall on the run line as a favorite.
While the Pirates are 4-1 in the last 5 in Game 3 of a series, they’re also just 6-15 in the last 21 against AL East teams.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but go lightly, as this matinee could be close to the number.
The Under is 4-2-1 in the last 7 games at home for the Rays, while going 4-2-1 in the last 7 at home against a right-handed starting pitcher, too. The Under is also 6-3-1 in the previous 10 battles between these teams.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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