The Pittsburgh Pirates (20-9) open a 3-game interleague series with the Tampa Bay Rays (23-6) Tuesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch for this matchup involving the top 2 teams in their respective league is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Rays went 3-0 in 2022 and have won 5 of the last 7 meetings going back to June 2014.
The Pirates surprisingly lead the National League Central Division by 1½ games over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Bucs are 11-5 on the road and lead the NL with a plus-48 run differential, which ranks 3rd in the majors.
Pittsburgh lost 7-2 Sunday at the Washington Nationals, but took 2 of 3 there and are 11-2 in its last 13 games.
The Rays are tops in run differential at plus-103, and they plated an MLB-best 195 runs (through just 29 games) — the Texas Rangers are 2nd at 178 runs.
The Rays also lost on the road Sunday. They fell 12-9 after a 7-run, 9th-inning by the Chicago White Sox, capped by a walk-off 3-run homer. However, Tampa Bay won 3 of 4 in the series.
It’s been feast or famine for the Rays offense lately. They scored 8 or more runs in 4 of the last 7 games but were shut out twice during the span. The Over is 3-1 in the last 4 games.
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Pirates at Rays projected starters
RHP Roansy Contreras vs. RHP Javy Guerra
Contreras (3-1, 3.58 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 27 2/3 innings.
- Last start: W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 8-1 home victory vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday — his 3rd consecutive quality start (QS)
- Road splits this season: 1-0, 2.31 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 3 ER), .220 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
Guerra (0-0, 8.64 ERA) makes his Rays 2023 debut after starting the season with Milwaukee. In 8 appearances for the Brewers — all in relief — he posted a 2.28 WHIP with 9.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 rates in 8 1/3 innings.
- Re-acquired from the Brewers Saturday for cash or a player to be named; he made 17 relief appearances for the Rays last season
- 2022 for Rays: 2-1, 3.38 ERA (16 IP, 6 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9 in 17 relief appearances — he was with Triple-A Durham most of the season (43 games)
- Expected to work as the opener Tuesday, making his 1st career MLB start after 52 relief appearances since breaking in with the Padres in 2019
Pirates at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Rays -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Pirates 3
Moneyline
The Rays (-175) are a little bit of a risky play as Guerra makes his 1st career start in the majors. He’s projected to serve as the opener with LHP Josh Fleming expected to follow and work a bulk of the innings. Fleming has a 3.26 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings this season.
PASS and look to the run line instead, for a much better value.
Run line/Against the spread
PITTSBURGH +1.5 (-140) is a good play if you’re looking for a little insurance in this interleague series opener, although it will cost the -140 juice.
While the Rays -1.5 (+115) have won 5 of their last 8 games, covering 4 of those outings by 3 or more runs, the Bucs have covered the run line in 8 consecutive games as an underdog, including 6 outright victories.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the lean in this interleague series opener under the dome in Florida.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games at home for the Rays, while going 2-1 in the last 3 interleague contests.
While the Over is 5-1 in the last 6 games for the Pirates, it has split 4-4 in the last 8 games against American League clubs.
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