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The Pittsburgh Pirates (71-78) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (74-75) Monday in the opener of a 4-game set at Busch Stadium at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cardinals lead 5-4
The Pirates avoided a 3-game sweep against the Kansas City Royals with a 4-3 win Sunday at basically a -108 pick’-em price. 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa went 3-for-5 with an RBI as the Bucs improved to 5-2 over their last 7 games.
The Cardinals playoff hopes took a big hit over the weekend as they were swept in 3 at the Toronto Blue Jays. The Cards lost 4-3 in 11 innings Friday, lost 7-2 Saturday and fell 3-2 Sunday — St. Louis was a minor underdog in all 3 games. The recurring theme was what it has been all year — struggling to score runs and drive in runners in scoring position. The Cards have lost 5 of their last 7.
Pirates at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Andre Pallante
Skenes (10-2, 2.10 ERA) makes his 21st start. The rookie has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 120 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 3-2 home victory Sept. 9
- Road splits: 4-1, 1.49 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Cardinals: 0-1, 1.23 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 9 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 16 K in 2 starts (both this season)
Pallante (6-8, 4.13 ERA) makes his 18th start (27th appearance). He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 102 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 3-0 home setback to Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
- Home splits: 4-5, 4.73 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 13 games (9 starts)
- Career vs. Pirates: 0-1, 3.33 ERA (27 IP, 10 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.3 K/9 in 15 games (2 starts)
- Career starts vs. Pirates: 0-0, 1.38 ERA (13 IP, 2 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 8 K in 2 starts (both this season)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 4:19 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Cardinals +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+120) | Cardinals +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pirates at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 4, Cardinals 2
Moneyline
The Cardinals have this weird thing of playing up to their competition. But Pallante has looked gassed. He has given up 8 earned runs over 10 innings in his last 2 starts. If he gives up half of that, it’s over against Skenes.
TAKE PIRATES (-145).
Run line/Against the spread
Of Pittsburgh’s 4 wins against St. Louis this year, only 1 of them was by multiple runs. While I’m forecasting a multi-run victory, I’ll be BETTING PAUL SKENES OVER 6.5 K’S (-120). He had 8 K’s in each of his 2 starts vs. the Cardinals.
Over/Under
The books have this one on point. There were 2-1 finals in both of Skenes’ starts against the Cards this year — 1 win and 1 loss. The wild card is Pallante, who looks cooked with awful control.
LEAN UNDER 7 (-105) or stay away.
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