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The Pittsburgh Pirates (31-34) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (31-33) Tuesday in the opener of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Pirates won 9-4 last year
The Pirates had Monday off after completing a 4-2 homestand in which they took 2 each from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins. Rookie phenom RHP Paul Skenes toes the rubber Tuesday. He’s still unbeaten and has 38 K’s in 27 IP so far. He has given up 5 ER and 3 HRs in 11 IP over his last 2 starts, though. That’s something to keep an eye on as the league gets more tape on him.
The Cards opened their homestand with a 4-game split with the Colorado Rockies. They have scored 5+ runs in 5 of 8 games. After a miserable start to the season offensively, they’re now tied for 21st with 4 runs/game. SS Masyn Winn has been a catalyst atop the order, hitting .306 with 3 HR, 23 RBIs and 8 steals.
Pirates at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Miles Mikolas
Skenes (3-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 in 27 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K Wednesday against Los Angeles Dodgers
- Has never faced Cardinals
- Home/road splits: Away – 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.42 WHIP, 15.0 K/9 in 2 GS; Home – 1-0, 4.20 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 3 GS
Mikolas (4-6, 5.32 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 71 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K Wednesday against Houston Astros
- Last 5 starts vs. Pirates: 1-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 21 K in 28 IP
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Pirates at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:48 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Cardinals +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Pirates at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline
I’m a little torn here because I fully expect Skenes to dominate, but he has yet to go past 6 IP in any of his starts. The Pirates have the 6th-worst ERA (4.50) in baseball.
The numbers don’t do it justice, but the Cards’ pen has been a strength. They’re 12th with a 3.71 ERA, but the back end of the pen has been lights out. The Cards get to the Bucs after Skenes exits.
TAKE CARDINALS (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
I don’t like the RL here, but I fully expect Skenes to get close to 10 K’s. I look for the Cards to stack a bunch of lefties with 2B Nolan Gorman and DH Matt Carpenter very K-prone.
TAKE PAUL SKENES OVER 7.5 (+105).
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Over/Under
It’s slated to be 80 degrees with a humidity expected to push close to 60% through the evening. The wind is a non-factor, blowing right-to-left at 3 mph.
The Cards are 4-5-1 O/U over their last 10, and the Pirates are 6-4. The Over is also 6-4 in the last 10 meetings.
Mikolas has a 5+ ERA, but he has a 2.40 ERA over his last 5 starts. He’ll keep the Cards in the game until the Pirates’ bullpen runs out there. This total is too small for me, though. If it swells any higher, I’m probably out, but I’ll TAKE OVER 7.5 (-105).
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