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The Pittsburgh Pirates (71-81) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (77-75) Thursday in the finale of a 4-game set at Busch Stadium at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cardinals lead 8-4
The Pirates dropped a wild one Wednesday 10-5 as +183 underdogs. They fell behind 4-0 after 3 innings and battled back to grab a 5-4 lead in the top of the 6th before folding in the 7th when the Cardinals scored 6 times. Six Pirates had 2 hits apiece, and rookie CF Billy Cook hit his 1st major league homer.
SS Masyn Winn’s game-tying homer to lead off the bottom of the 7th started the Cardinals’ big inning, while RF Jordan Walker capped the scoring with a bases-clearing 3-run double 7 batters later. Winn, who has 14 homers, quietly is having one of the best seasons as a Cardinals shortstop over the last 20 years. Even though the Cards — who cashed as -201 favorites Wednesday — have won 3 in a row, they’re still 7 games out of a Wild Card spot and running out of runway with 10 games to go.
Pirates at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Luis Ortiz vs. RHP Erick Fedde
Ortiz (6-6, 3.45 ERA) makes his 14th start and 36th appearance. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 122 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER (7 R), 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 8-3 home setback vs. Kansas City Royals Friday
- Career vs. Cardinals: 0-2, 14.63 ERA (8 IP, 13 ER), 14 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 10 K in 4 games (3 starts)
- 2024 vs. Cardinals: 1 relief appearance, 2 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 7-4 home loss July 2
- 3 career starts vs. Cardinals: 0-2, 18.00 ERA (6 IP, 12 ER) 11 H, 2 HR, 10 BB, 6 K
Fedde (8-9, 3.45 ERA) makes his 30th start this season combined between the Cardinals and Chicago White Sox. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 164 1/3 innings between the 2 clubs
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 4-3 loss in 11 innings at Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-0, 3.60 ERA (10 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 10 K in 2 starts — both in 2022 for Washington Nationals
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 3:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cardinals -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Pirates at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Cardinals 4
Moneyline
The Cards have dominated this series. However, Fedde is 1-5 with a 4.43 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 21 ER) since being acquired by the Cardinals. Expect the PIRATES (+120) to bounce back.
Run line/Against the spread
Since Fedde has not settled in with his new team, I’m taking ERICK FEDDE UNDER 17.5 OUTS (-110). He has made it through 6 innings only twice in 8 of his starts with the Cardinals.
Over/Under
It’s a warm 88 degrees with a 6-mph wind blowing out to left-center in St. Louis. The bats really came out Wednesday, and I look for Busch to play similarly Thursday on a hot evening.
TAKE OVER 8.5 (-100).
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