The Pittsburgh Pirates (13-16) and San Diego Padres (17-14) play the finale of a three-game set Wednesday at Petco Park with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 over 27 1/3 IP through 5 starts.
Brubaker allowed 3 or fewer runs in each of his 5 outings. Statistically, he had his worst outing of the season last time out Friday, allowing season highs of 3 earned runs and 7 hits in just 5 innings for his shortest outing since April 5.
RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 38 IP through 6 starts.
Darvish turned in a quality start in each of his past 5 outings, and he struck out a season-high 12 batters last time out in 6 1/3 innings against the San Francisco Giants. He also allowed just 1 run on 3 hits and 1 walk with 6 strikeouts over 7 innings in a victory in Pittsburgh April 12.
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Pirates at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Padres -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-110) | Padres -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (Over -115 | Under -105)
Prediction
Padres 4, Pirates 1
Money line (ML)
The Padres (-250) will cost you two and a half times your potential return, and that’s risky business considering they have had difficulty scoring runs lately.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The PADRES -1.5 (-110) are worth a small-unit play, as they have one of their best pitchers on the bump.
Darvish has allowed just 5 earned runs across his last 33 1/3 innings spanning 5 starts. It won’t take much offense for the Padres to cover the run line here, and that’s good since they have managed just 4 runs in their last three games.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 6.5 (-105) is the lean, although it’s a very, very low number.
San Diego isn’t producing much with the bats, and Darvish won’t yield much, either. The Padres should win this series finale in a low-scoring game.
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