The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-15) and San Diego Padres (16-13) open a three-game series at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: 2-2 after – they split a 4-game set in Pittsburgh April 12-15.
The Pirates enter on a 4-game skid after getting shut out 3-0 by the visiting St. Louis Cardinals Sunday. The Padres lost at home to the San Francisco Giants 7-1 Sunday, snapping a 3-game win streak.
LHP Tyler Anderson is the Pirates’ projected starter. He is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 through 5 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K vs. Kansas City Royals Tuesday – Pirates won 2-1
- 2021 vs. Padres: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-1 home victory April 14
- Career vs. Padres: 4-2, 2.53 ERA (57 IP, 16 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance
RHP Miguel Diaz is expected to start for the Padres in his first MLB appearance since 2019. It would have been RHP Chris Paddack‘s turn to start, but he was placed on the injured list Friday with what the team called a “medical condition.” Diaz, who broke into the bigs in 2017, has never faced the Pirates.
- Diaz in 2019: 0-0, 7.11 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5 relief outings
- Diaz career: 2-1, 6.62 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 in 47 games, including 3 starts
- Career as a starter: 0-0, 4.70 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 5 BB, 7 K
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Pirates at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Pirates 4, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
The PIRATES (+160) are the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Pirates offer decent value with Anderson on the mound vs. Diaz, who is making his first MLB appearance in two years. The Bucs were +176 underdogs when Anderson beat the Padres in Pittsburgh April 14.
The +160 ML price is just too good to pass up.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. I don’t want to risk the chance of losing 2 bets – Pirates ML and Pirates ATS – if the Padres win by 2 or more runs.
ATS records: Pirates 12-15 | Padres 15-14
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 9 (-115) is the play. The Under is 5-0 in Anderson’s starts this season, including his 5-1 victory against the Padres.
While the thought of Diaz starting for the Friars might be worrisome, their bullpen’s 2.95 ERA ranks first in the NL and fifth in the majors.
Pittsburgh’s relievers are pretty good too, owning a 3.65 ERA to rank third in the Senior Circuit.
Scoring-wise, both clubs are in the bottom third of the majors. San Diego averages 4.0 runs per game and Pittsburgh averages 3.78 runs per game.
Another supporting factor for the Under: In the 16 games at Petco Park this season, the Padres averaged 3.19 runs and allowed 3.625 runs per game.
O/U records: Pirates 13-12-2 | Padres 12-17
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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| 2021 MLB | 34-30-1 | 9-9-1 | +0.38 |
| 2021 (all sports) | 137-115-2 | 58-50-1 | +13.93 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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