The Pittsburgh Pirates (34-35) and Milwaukee Brewers (36-34) close out a 3-game set Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 2-0
The Pirates have dropped 5 in a row and 8 of 10 to fall below .500. They’re still just 1 1/2 games out behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Pirates are 10-9 against divisional foes and 16-19 on the road overall.
Milwaukee has won 2 in a row after dropping 6 straight. They beat the Pirates 5-4 and 5-0 the last 2 days. Milwaukee is 20-16 at home and 10-5 against teams within the division.
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Pirates at Brewers projected starters
RHP Luis Ortiz vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Ortiz (1-3, 4.64 ERA) makes his 7th start and 8th appearance. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 33 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K Tuesday against Chicago Cubs
- 2023 splits: 1-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 3 starts, 4 appearances at home; 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA, 2.10 WHIP in 3 road starts
Peralta (5-6, 4.73 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 70 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K June 11 against Oakland Athletics
- Last 5 starts vs. Pirates: 1-0, 1.69 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 27 K in 26 2/3 IP
Pirates at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-145) | Brewers -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pirates at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Pirates 2
Moneyline
The Brew Crew is starting to hit its stride, and the Pirates are starting to fall back to the norm after a great start to the season. The only question is if Peralta, who has great history against Pittsburgh, can keep the Bucs down. Peralta has a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this year vs. 6.04 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the road.
That gives me enough confidence to LEAN BREWERS -160.
Run line/Against the spread
The Brewers are 30-40 on the RL and 14-22 at home this season in what has been an underwhelming first 70 games. They have won 4 of 5 against Pittsburgh, and 3 of the 4 have been by more than a run.
I’ll take BREWERS -1.5 (+120).
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Over/Under
The wind is blowing in at 10 mph. The Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee. These teams have remained under 9 runs in 3 of the last 4 against one another.
Neither offense will blow you away so I will LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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