The Pittsburgh Pirates (39-44) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (46-37) begin a 4-game series Monday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 2-1
The Pirates dropped the final 2 games in Milwaukee to lose the weekend series against the 1st-place Brewers. Pittsburgh has managed a 5-14 record across the past 19 games.
The Dodgers were stunned in Kansas City, falling Saturday and Sunday in dropping 2 of 3 games against the lowly Royals (25-59). Los Angeles is just 3-4 across the past 7 games, and now it might have to do without one of its best pitchers for a bit.
LHP Clayton Kershaw (10-4, 2.55 ERA) — named to his 10th All-Star team after Sunday’s roster release — was expected to start Monday, but he is dealing with left shoulder inflammation. Manager Dave Roberts hasn’t named Monday’s starter as of this publishing — Sunday, he said Kershaw could still make this start against the Pirates, and he was able to throw in the outfield in Kansas City Saturday.
The Dodgers pulled prospect RHP Gavin Stone from his scheduled Triple-A start for Oklahoma City Sunday. This likely means Stone is Monday’s backup plan if Kershaw lands on the injured list, or has to skip a start.
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Pirates at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. TBD
Keller (9-3, 3.34 ERA), who received his 1st All-Star selection Sunday, makes his 18th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 105 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-1 home win vs. San Diego Padres Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 4-2, 4.02 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 5 HR, 1.25 WHIP, .249 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts
- 2023 vs. Dodgers: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 6-2 home victory April 27
Kershaw would be making his 17th start of the season if he’s ruled good to go. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 95 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 5-0 win at Colorado Rockies Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 4-1, 1.70 ERA (37 IP, 7 ER,) 5 HR, 0.81 WHIP, .191 OBA in 6 starts
Stone (0-0, 14.40 ERA) would be making his 4th start in the bigs this season, where the rookie has a 3.00 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 in 10 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 3 K in an 11-10 road loss vs. the Tampa Bay Rays on May 28
- 2023 Triple-A: 2-4, 6.71 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9 in 12 starts
- 2023 MLB home splits: 4 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 1 K in a no-decision of 10-4 victory vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 3 in his major league debut and only home start so far
Pirates at Dodgers odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +138 (bet $100 to win $138) | Dodgers -164 (bet $164 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-152) | Dodgers -1.5 (+126)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 4, Dodgers 3
Moneyline
The PIRATES (+138) are worth playing due to the uncertainty on the mound for the Dodgers. Plus, Pittsburgh took care of Los Angeles twice already in 3 meetings this season.
The Bucs are lucky to have their best starting pitcher positioned for this series opener, and they should steal one against a Dodgers team reeling after dropping 2 of 3 games on the road to the woeful Royals.
Run line/Against the spread
The PIRATES +1.5 (-152) is worth playing if you’re not interested in backing Pittsburgh’s moneyline (+138). The Bucs are 4-1 in the past 5 games as underdogs, but straight up and against the run line.
Pittsburgh is also 6-2 in the past 8 games on the run line as a ‘dog, so even if it can’t win straight up, it should be able to keep it close, especially with Keller on the bump.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the best play, regardless of Los Angeles’ pitching situation.
While the Over has cashed in 4 in a row for the Bucs, the total pushed in Keller’s most recent assignment, Wednesday against the Padres. The Under is 2-1-1 in Keller’s past 4 starts, and he has the quality start, while limiting L.A. to just 2 runs in 6 innings back in late April.
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