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The Cincinnati Reds (79-77) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (74-81) to Great American Ball Park Sunday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 8-4
The Pirates rallied for a 13-12 victory as +117 underdogs Saturday after trailing 9-0 in the 4th inning. Pittsburgh has now won 4 straight outings despite being an underdog in each game and is 7-3 over its last 10 and 36-41 on the road this season.
The Reds need to get hot to get an NL Wild Card spot, as they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games. Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games and is 2 1/2 games back of the final playoff berth.
Pirates at Reds projected starters
RHP Quinn Priester vs. LHP Brandon Williamson
Priester (3-2, 8.61 ERA) makes his 7th start and 9th appearance. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 38 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 7-2 road loss to the New York Mets on Aug. 14
- 2023 road stats: 1-1, 7.52 ERA in 20 1/3 IP over 3 starts and 4 appearances
Williamson (4-5, 4.56 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 106 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 8-4 road loss to the Mets Sunday
- 2023 home stats: 2-2, 4.24 ERA in 51 IP over 9 starts
Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Reds -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-115) | Reds -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 8, Pirates 4
Moneyline
PASS.
The Reds should bounce back after blowing a 9-run lead to the Pirates Saturday. Williamson will have a significant pitching advantage, but there’s no value in backing Cincinnati (-190) on the moneyline.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS -1.5 (-105).
Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league in cover rate as a road underdog, just 38-33 against the spread (ATS) this season. Cincinnati is 11-17 ATS as a home favorite and has a better ATS record than Pittsburgh in divisional games.
Cincinnati is on the cusp of an NL Wild Card spot and can’t afford to drop this game. After starting up 9-0 Saturday, a bounce-back performance with Williamson having had far more success on the mound than Priester seems likely.
Take REDS -1.5 (-105).
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 11 (-105).
The bats have been hot, and the pitching hasn’t been great throughout this series. The Pirates won 7-5 Friday then 13-12 Saturday. The Reds have gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games with a total and in 2 straight Williamson starts.
Pittsburgh is 84-65-5 O/U on the season and has gone Over in 5 straight games. It has gone Over in 5 of Priester’s 6 starts. Take OVER 11 (-105).
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