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The Pittsburgh Pirates (73-81) and Cincinnati Reds (79-76) play the 2nd of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 7-4
The Bucs have won 3 games in a row and are surging with 7 wins in the last 10 contests. They still sit 7 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with hope dwindling, but it has been a successful season for them. Pittsburgh is 18-12 over the last 30 games.
The Reds came of age as well this year, and they’re just 1 1/2 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. They need to turn it around though, as they’ve lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. Cincinnati has actually been a better road team at 42-34 as opposed to 37-42 at home, but it has struggled at 19-28 within the NL Central.
Pirates at Reds projected starters
LHP Bailey Falter vs. RHP Connor Phillips
Falter (2-9, 4.58 ERA) makes his 14th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 78 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 1 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 K Tuesday against Chicago Cubs
- 2 career starts vs. Reds: 0-1, 5.59 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6 K in 9 2/3 IP
Phillips (1-0, 5.74 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 15 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K Monday against Minnesota Twins
- Is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 2 home starts
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Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 7, Pirates 5
Moneyline
This is going to be a battle. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 10 meetings with the Reds, but the Reds have taken 2 of the last 4. Cincinnati needs this series to stay in contention, and Pittsburgh took the opener Friday. Look for the Reds to come out early and put the pressure on.
Take the REDS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
The Reds have been money on the run line this season at 93-61, including a 45-33 mark at home. Seven of the last 10 meetings between the teams have been decided by more than a run. Go easy, but I’ll take the REDS -1.5 (+140) for a HALF-UNIT due to the magnitude of this game.
Over/Under
The Pirates have scored 28 runs in their last 3 games. The Over is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings between the teams, but it has hit in 3 of the last 4 games. We have two relative unknowns on the mound Saturday, and the ball really flies in GABP.
I’ll LEAN OVER 9.5 (-110).
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