[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Cincinnati Reds (79-75) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (72-81) to Great American Ball Park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 6-4
The Reds are 6-4 over their last 10 games and lost 2 of 3 games vs. the Minnesota Twins to start the week. Cincinnati lost 5-3 Wednesday as a -128 favorite to fall to 37-41 at home this season. The Reds are a half-game back of the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card.
The Pirates are 34-41 on the road and are also 6-4 over their last 10 games. Pittsburgh won 2 of 3 against the Cubs from Tuesday to Thursday, picking up the series finale 8-6 as a +151 underdog.
Pirates at Reds projected starters
RHP Luis Ortiz vs. LHP Andrew Abbott
Ortiz (4-5, 4.85 ERA) makes his 15th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 78 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 6 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home loss vs. New York Yankees Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 2-2, 4.54 ERA in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 8 appearances
Abbott (8-5, 3.68 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 102 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road win vs. New York Mets Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 3-3, 3.46 ERA in 48 IP over 10 starts
Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Pirates at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Pirates 4
Moneyline
PASS.
Given how well the Pirates are playing — they’ve scored 21 runs over their last 2 games — there’s little value on the Reds at -165. However, Cincinnati will have a sizable pitching advantage and probably should be that large of a favorite.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS -1.5 (+115).
The Pirates have been electric at the plate as of late, but they have also given up 6 or more runs in 3 straight games. They have lost 3 of their last 6 games by 2 or more runs.
The Reds are an MLB-best 93-61 ATS despite having covered just 1 of their last 5 games.
With a pitching advantage in their home park and in a game that could play a big factor in their postseason dreams, combined with the Pirates’ flaws on the mound lately, the Reds have good value to cover.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9.5 (-110).
The Reds have gone over in 2 of their last 4 games and are 7-6-1 O/U in their last 14 games.
The Pirates have scored 22 runs over their last 3 games and allowed 27 in that span, so they have had high-action games as of late. The Pirates are 83-66-4 O/U this season — the 4th highest Over % in the league.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter./X Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]