The Cincinnati Reds (0-1) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) to Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pittsburgh leads 1-0
The Reds lost their season-opening game to Pittsburgh 5-4. Second baseman Jonathan India and DH Jake Fraley both led the team with 2 hits.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was led by SS Oneil Cruz, who had 2 RBIs and 1 HR Thursday. The Pirates bullpen pitched 4 1/3 innings and allowed 0 ER.
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Pirates at Reds projected starters
LHP Rich Hill vs. LHP Nick Lodolo
Hill (8-7, 4.27 ERA) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.303 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 124 1/3 IP in 2022.
- Hill came over to Pittsburgh from Boston.
- The 43-year-old veteran was 5-3 on the road last season.
Lodolo (6-6, 3.66 ERA) makes his 1st start. He has a 1.248 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 through 103 1/3 IP.
- Lodolo is just 25 years old and led the league in hitting batters last season (19).
- He was 3-4 in 12 games started at GABP last season. In those, he had just a 2.85 ERA.
Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Reds -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Reds -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Reds nickname picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline
BET REDS (-145).
Lodolo pitched his best at home last season, and he has shown promise in the majors. The Reds ended Thursday with fewer runs but more hits and a better batting average.
In the first half of the season in 2022, the Reds were 3-2 against Pittsburgh at home. This is a good bounce-back spot with a quality prospect on the mound for Cincinnati.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There isn’t much value here either way as these teams played a close battle Thursday. Reds -1.5 (+135) isn’t worth the risk here.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-110).
Both starting pitchers from Thursday were taken out with over a 7.70 ERA. Hunter Greene had an 8.10 ERA while Mitch Keller had a 7.71 ERA. Hill and Lodolo should be better and limit batters.
Lodolo’s last 3 starts of the 2022 season went Under this total. Hill went Under this total in his last 2 starts of last season and in 3 of his last 5.
For a small unit, take the UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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