The Pittsburgh Pirates battle the Cincinnati Reds in the season-opener Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. Pittsburgh won 12 of 19 meetings in 2022.
The Reds finished in 4th place in the NL Central a season ago, ending the 2022 at 62-100. First baseman Joey Votto and 2B Jonathan India are the team’s most notable batters.
The only team as bad in the division as Cincinnati last season was Pittsburgh. The Pirates also finished 62-100. LF Bryan Reynolds led the team with 27 HRs last season, and he will be back on the roster for the 2023 season.
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Pirates at Reds projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Hunter Greene
The 26-year-old Keller went 5-12 during his 4th season with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He closed the year with 3.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 159 IP.
- Allowed just 14 HRs in 31 games (29 starts) last season
- Was 4-5 on the road last season with a 4.13 ERA in 14 games (13 starts)
Greene went 5-13 during his 1st MLB season with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He notched 3.4 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 125 2/3 IP.
- Allowed 24 HRs in 24 starts in 2022, although he gave up just 1 HR in his last 6 games.
- Was 3-6 at home as opposed to 2-7 on the road.
Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -103 | U: -117)
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Pirates at Reds nickname picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline
BET REDS (-140).
In the Reds’ 1st 2 home series against the Pirates last year, they went 3-2. The 23-year-old Greene should be able to produce, having had a full offseason after his rookie campaign.
While you can’t put much stock into it, Cincinnati was 15-14 in spring training while Pittsburgh was 9-18. The Pirates were 2-9 as the road team in spring training.
The Reds were 33-48 at home last season while Pittsburgh was 28-53 on the road. Cincinnati should have the talent and pitching to come out on top on Opening Day in what is typically a holiday in the Queen City.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The value here is on Cincinnati -1.5 (+150), but considering it will be without Votto for the opener, I would pass and play them on the juiced moneyline.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-117).
In 14 road games last season, Keller had a 4.13 ERA and in 72 IP he allowed just 6 HRs. The veteran should have a solid outing.
Greene is a rising star and should perform well. Pittsburgh ended spring training with just 136 runs in 27 games, so it isn’t an ultra-strong offensive side either.
With Votto out and the Reds with a relatively new group of 1st-teamers, back the UNDER 8.5 (-117).
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