The Pittsburgh Pirates (54-88) and Cincinnati Reds (56-85) close out a 4-game NL Central series with a Wednesday matinee at Great American Ball Park, First pitch is slated for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Pittsburgh leads 8-7
The Pirates have taken the first 3 games of this series which included a doubleheader Tuesday. Pittsburgh has allowed just 4 runs in this series, and that solid pitching is part of a recent trend — it’s logged a 3.68 ERA since Aug. 28.
The Reds have lost 5 straight games. They have struggled at home in the back half of the season. Cincinnati is 7-12 across its last 19 contests at Great American Ball Park.
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Pirates at Reds projected starters
RHP Roansy Contreras vs. LHP Nick Lodolo
Contreras (5-4, 3.29 ERA) has appeared in 17 games and made 14 starts. He’s clocked a 1.30 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 79 1/3 IP.
- Faced the Reds on the road July 7 and allowed 1ER on 4 H and 1 BB with 7 K over 6 IP
- Owns a 1.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last 3 starts
- Has benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play
Lodolo (4-5, 3.78 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 81 IP.
- Has been dinged by a .342 BABIP
- Owns a 2.57 ERA across 49 IP at home (1.52 ERA since July 25)
Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Reds -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 4, Pirates 3
Money line
Contreras logged 96 pitches in his last start. That’s his 3rd-highest count of the season. Next-time-outs after 98 and 97 pitches were ineffective.
Cincinnati is a lean here, but only to a price of -160. PASS otherwise.
Run line/Against the spread
The likable home side and likable Under don’t usually mix well on the Run Line. PASS.
Over/Under
Peg the Cincy offense as being a bit too far out over its skis with its surface numbers. This whole series has had an Under lean; so far it has been a profitable one.
BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (+100).
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