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The Philadelphia Phillies (67-56) face the Washington Nationals (56-68) in the MLB Little League Classic. First pitch from the Muncy Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pa., is on Sunday Night Baseball at 7:10pm ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 7-5
After Philadelphia’s stunning 8-7 loss to the Washington Nationals on Friday, where they blew a 6-1 lead, Saturday was Washington’s turn to implode.
The Nationals took a 3-0 into the 7th inning thanks to RHP Jake Irvin’s 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, and 7 K, but the bullpen immediately unraveled. Phillies RF Nick Castellanos hit a 3-run home run to tie the game in the 7th.
And then the 8th inning was a disaster for Washington. RHP Cory Abbott allowed 8 runs including 2 solo HRs from SS Trea Turner and a 3-run shot from 2B Bryson Stott. The Phillies won 12-3.
Phillies vs. Nationals projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Trevor Williams
Wheeler (9-5, 3.63 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 144 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 2-1 loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 6-3, 3.24 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 28 ER) in 13 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 12-14, 4.66 ERA (181 2/3 IP, 94 ER) in 31 starts
Williams (5-7, 5.20 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 117 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-7 home win against the Oakland Athletics on Sunday
- 2023 home stats: 2-3, 4.85 ERA (55 2/3 IP, 30 ER) in 11 starts
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-4, 6.00 ERA (39 IP, 26 ER) in 9 appearances (7 starts)
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Phillies vs. Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Nationals +185 (bet $100 to win $185)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -2.5 (+110) | Nationals +2.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Phillies vs. Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 7, Nationals 5
Moneyline
The initial pitching matchup favored Philadelphia. LHP Ranger Suárez has beaten Washington more than any other team in his career but was a late scratch. Wheeler can fill in his shoes quite well.
He’s 12-14 against Washington in his career and is pitching well this season. His 10 K/9 is the 2nd best in his career and his strikeout to walk ratio (5.52) is his best.
Also, Williams has struggled against Philadelphia, posting a 1-4 record.
But -225 is too high to grab them at the moneyline. It’s best to PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
It’s uncommon to see a 2.5 run line in baseball. But getting just above even money on a Phillies team who has the 3rd-worst record against the spread this season (52-71) is not ideal. And Philadelphia is last in MLB in cover percentage after a win (39.4%).
On the flip side, Washington’s has a surprisingly good cover rate after a loss (56.7%) which is 8th best in baseball.
BET NATIONALS +2.5 (-135).
Over/Under
Both teams trend toward the Under this season, but more recently, they have been hitting the Over. The Phillies and Nationals are on 3-game Over streaks, including the 1st 2 games of this series.
In the last 3 games, the Phillies are 3rd in runs per game (9.3) while the Nationals are 6th (7.0). Philadelphia has done it with the long ball, averaging 3.3 HRs a game. Washington on the other hand is last in HRs per game (0.3) and is 1sst in doubles.
The books like a lower scoring game, but I like the value in seeing the runs continue to flow.
LEAN OVER 9 (+100).
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