The Philadelphia Phillies (46-39) and Tampa Bay Rays (57-32) meet Thursday as they cap off a 3-game series in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch at Tropicana Field is slated for 6:40 p.m. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 2-0
The Phillies are looking for a sweep after 3-1 and 8-4 victories Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Philadelphia is 7-2 over its last 9 games. The Phillies have not lost on the road since June 12, going 11-0 with a 2.18 ERA away from Citizens Bank Park over that span.
Tampa Bay has lost 4 in a row, a first this season. The Rays are 10-13 since June 10, going just 4-6 at home along that stretch.
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Phillies at Rays projected starters
LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Shawn Armstrong
Sanchez (0-2, 3.26 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 19 1/3 IP.
- Owns a 4.88 career ERA logged across parts of 3 seasons (8 starts, 18 relief appearances)
- Went a season-high 87 pitches last time out: Loss, 6 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 2-1 loss vs. Washington Nationals Friday
Armstrong (0-0, 1.15 ERA) is making his 2nd start and 13th appearance. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 15 2/3 IP.
- Figures as an opener for the Rays (pitched 2 innings in that role June 7 vs. Minnesota Twins)
- Has made 4 starts in his career: 0.93 ERA in 9 2/3 IP
Phillies at Rays odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +128 (bet $100 to win $128) | Rays -152 (bet $152 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-162) | Rays -1.5 (+134)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Phillies at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Rays 4
Moneyline
The Phillies have shown better form recently and Sanchez’s good stat line is supportable with analytics, giving underdog bettors some value Thursday.
The Philadelphia bullpen has been sharp over the last month or so. Tampa’s relief unit figures to be overrated with a low (and lucky) .259 batting average on balls in play.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA (+128).
Run line/Against the spread
There’s a nice equilibrium between this action and the Moneyline wager above. Some bettors may want to hedge by going in for a half-unit on each if the line improves to Philadelphia +1.5 (-150) or better. Until then, PASS.
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Over/Under
The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 series meetings in Tampa Bay and is 20-7 in Tampa’s last 27 home games overall.
However, the Philly pitching prognosis is solid for this contest, and both bullpens are in good shape at the back end. At the right price (say -110), the 8.5-run total is attractive on the upside. But at the current tag, STEER CLEAR.
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