The San Francisco Giants (45-25) host the Philadelphia Phillies (33-34) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won the first game of the series 5-3 with starting RHP Johnny Cueto getting a win in a quality start and the Giants’ bullpen pitching three scoreless innings in relief.
Season series: Giants lead 3-1.
RHP Aaron Nola makes his 15th start for the Phillies. Nola is 5-4 with a 3.69 ERA (83 IP, 34 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 7-0, with 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 9 K Sunday vs. the New York Yankees.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 54 at-bats with a .333/.379/.407 slash line, 16/3 K/BB, 0 HR and 8 RBIs.
LHP Alex Wood is on the mound for the Giants. Wood is 6-3 with a 3.71 ERA (63 IP, 26 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 11 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 7 K Monday vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 110 at-bats with a .209/.267/.282 slash line, 35/8 K/BB, 1 HR and 7 RBIs.
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Phillies at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:26 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Giants -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+165) | Giants +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Phillies 4, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the PHILLIES (-105) for 1 unit because Nola has pitched well against good teams this season and his advancing pitching numbers against these Giants batters are eye-popping.
For instance, against teams with a winning record this season, Nola is 4-2 with a higher K/BB rate, lower WHIP and lower ERA by two full runs than against sub .500 teams.
While both starters have impressive advanced pitching numbers against their respective opponents, Nola has been dominant vs. current Giants hitters. He’s posted a 1.02 FIP with a .255 expected opponent’s wOBA, .303 expected slugging percentage and a 28.6% strikeout rate.
And for what it’s worth, Nola is way more effective when making a start in the daytime vs. the night.
He’s 2-0 in five starts with a 1.67 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 9.3 K/BB rate in the day compared to a 3-4 record with a 5.07 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB rate in nine nighttime starts.
Also, Philly is above average vs. left-handed pitching, ranking 13th in wRC+, 14th in wOBA and 15th in OPS, while Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto have a .863 OPS or higher vs. Wood.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Giants +1.5 (-200) have the second-highest cover rate at home (20-12 ATS record in San Francisco) while the Phillies -1.5 (+165) are just 2-8 ATS as a road favorite this season with a minus-3.3 run line margin.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) because, as I stated earlier, Wood’s advanced pitching numbers against Philly’s lineup are very good and the “sharp” money is betting the Under whereas the public is on the Over.
According to Pregame.com, over 75% of the early money wagered is on the Under but 70% of the early action is on the Over and, in sports gambling, it’s generally wiser to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the bettors.
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