The Philadelphia Phillies (33-33) are at Oracle Park Friday to start a three-game series with the host San Francisco Giants (44-25). First pitch will be at 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Giants lead 2-1.
RHP Vince Velasquez is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 2-1 with a 4.25 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across nine starts and four bullpen appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K Saturday against the New York Yankees.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 50 at-bats with a .160/.276/.360 slash line, 15/8 K/BB, 3 HR and 8 RBIs.
RHP Johnny Cueto makes his 11th start for the Giants. He is 4-3 with a 4.00 ERA (54 IP, 24 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-0, with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 BB and 2 K Sunday at the Washington Nationals.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 166 at-bats with a .283/.350/.476 slash line, 39/14 K/BB, 6 HR and 15 RBIs.
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Phillies at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Giants -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Giants -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Phillies 8, Giants 6
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the PHILLIES (+110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit because both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games and it’s a “contrarian” play vs. a betting market that’s backing the Giants.
Philly beat the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday and won four straight against the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves last week while San Francisco’s current four-game winning streak was at home against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that’s historically bad on the road.
Furthermore, the Giants’ money line is fairly cheap considering they are in first place in an NL West Division with the defending World Series champion Dodgers and a San Diego Padres team dripping with talent.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the action is on San Francisco’s money line and it’s too robotic of a play for a majority of the market to make.
Fading the Giants in this spot also works because Velasquez’s numbers vs. current Giants hitters are sharper than Cueto’s against current Phillies batters.
The reason for backing Philly on the First 5 Innings line is because the Phillies bullpen has the worst WAR in the majors.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the PHILLIES +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because of all the previous analysis, plus, Philly’s half-run of insurance for the First 5 Innings is reasonably priced.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-110) for a half unit.
Cueto has given up 4 home runs in his last two starts, Velasquez’s exit velocity, hard-hit rate and fly-ball rates are all higher than the MLB average and the weather forecast calls for double-digit winds blowing out to left-centerfield.
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