The Philadelphia Phillies (62-49) and New York Mets (73-39) meet Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET to open a 3-game NL East series at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies at Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: New York leads 9-3. The Mets have won 4 in a row from the Phils dating back to May 8.
The Phillies head north off a 6-1 home stand. Since July 27, Philadelphia pitching has dealt out a 3.37 ERA. The club has gone 12-2 over that stretch. One thing to keep an eye on, though, OF Kyle Schwarber left Thursday’s game with a calf issue. He’s likely questionable for this one.
The Mets have ace RHP Max Scherzer on the hill, and they’re 8-2 and 15-5 over their last 10 and 20 games, respectively. They are getting healthy at the right time.
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Phillies at Mets projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Suarez (8-5, 3.68 ERA) is tabbed for his 20th start of the season. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 100 1/3 IP.
- Owns a 2.63 ERA since June 17.
- Has pitched 11 scoreless innings over his last 2 road starts.
Scherzer (8-2, 1.98 ERA) owns a 0.90 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 95 2/3 IP across 15 starts.
- Coming off 7 shutout IP (and 11K) in his last start (Saturday vs. Atlanta Braves).
- Has authored a 1.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP across 45 2/3 IP at Citi Field.
- Has held current Philadelphia batters to a low-contact .597 OPS in past meetings.
Phillies at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Mets -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 3, Mets 2
Money line
Scherzer is coming off back-to-back starts with pitch counts over 100, and the Phillies have gotten to him a bit the last two times he has faced them.
The visiting 9 is the lean, but it will take a +185 to trigger a partial-unit play. PASS otherwise.
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Run line/Against the spread
Much the same calculus as above: the Phils +1.5 are a lean but only at -125 or better. Otherwise, the O/U action figures as the best route to profits in Friday’s opener. PASS.
Over/Under
The starting pitching matchup is a run-suppressant one. And the lefty-righty matchup angles into weaker platoon splits on both sides.
Both bullpens have had some shaky surface numbers in the last month, the Phillies most especially (5.08 ERA last 30 days). But both carry in effective analytic lines that point to better days.
On a breeze-blowing-in evening a pitcher-friendly Citi Field, TAKE THE UNDER 6.5 (+105).
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