The Philadelphia Phillies (27-29) and Milwaukee Brewers (33-25) meet Thursday to wrap up a 3-game series at American Family Field. The contest is slated to start at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 3-2.
The Phillies have won 6 consecutive games. Philadelphia landed a 10-0 win Wednesday and has scored 6 runs or more in 5 of the 6 wins. Philly is 9-7 with a robust .801 OPS over its last 16 road games.
The Brewers have lost 5 games in a row and 7 of their last 8. The Milwaukee offense has batted .209/.281/.341 (.622 OPS) since May 22.
Phillies at Brewers projected starters
RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Eflin (2-4, 3.88 ERA) is tabbed for his 10th start of the season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 51 IP.
- Pitched 8 scoreless innings in his last start vs. the Los Angeles Angels Friday, and that was a fine bounce-back after coughing up 7 runs over 6 innings at the New York Mets May 28.
- Owns a 1.16 ERA at home vs. an 8.10 ERA on the road, and that’s nothing new. Since 2020, has logged a 2.53 ERA in home games and a 5.89 figure on the road.
Burnes (3-3, 2.50 ERA) owns a 0.92 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 68 1/3 IP in 11 starts.
- Allowed 5R in 3 2/3 IP in his last start Friday vs. the San Diego Padres. He had given the Brewers 6-plus IP in 9 straight starts prior to that turn.
Phillies at Brewers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Phillies +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Brewers 3
Money line
Records in 1-run games (Phillies 5-10, Brewers 13-7) and some other big-picture factors bring some systemic lean to the Philly side. That’s made for a couple of betting wins in this series. However, the lean here is checked somewhat by Eflin’s road performances and more so by price.
There is some value on the PHILLIES (+140) but it’s a PASS if the price tag decreases.
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Run line/Against the spread
Taking the run-and-a-half insurance due to Eflin’s road clunkers is an enticing idea, but the layout is too much. PASS.
Over/Under
Both bullpens are in good shape. Eflin’s results against teams not named the New York Mets have been impressive. The tag here is an outlier in the marketplace. BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-125).
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