The Philadelphia Phillies (69-66) wrap up their three-game series against the Miami Marlins (57-79) Sunday, hoping to avoid a series sweep. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Phillies will have a bullpen game with RHP Sam Coonrod (2-2, 3.86 ERA) opening for the first time this season. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 32 2/3 IP in relief.
- Only eight of his 31 appearances were for more than 1 inning.
- In three appearances against the Marlins this season, he is 0-1 with an 3 ER allowed over 3 innings of work. He has given up 5 hits and 2 walks and has struck out 1.
Marlins RHP Elieser Hernandez (1-1, 3.62 ERA) makes his seventh start of the year. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 27 1/3 IP.
- The Marlins won all three of Hernandez’s home starts this season.
- He picked up his first win of the season in his last start, allowing 2 runs and 7 hits over 5 innings of a 7-5 Marlins victory over the Washington Nationals.
Phillies at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Marlins 4, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
The Phillies lost the first two games of the series, which snapped a six-game win streak. They are 30-38 on the road this year.
The Marlins are 36-32 at home and have won four home games in a row, as well as winning six of their last seven. In two home starts in August, Hernandez had an ERA of 2.61.
Take the MARLINS (-105).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Phillies are 64-70 ATS this season and 33-35 ATS on the road. However, they are an abysmal 22-49 ATS when favored. They failed to cover their last three games and are 4-7 ATS over their last 11 games.
The Marlins are 70-65 ATS and are 37-31 ATS at home, the fifth-best home ATS record in the majors. They are 52-43 ATS as underdogs.
I expect an outright win by Miami in this game and the money line bet gives you better value, but if you want a little wiggle room from the spread, take the MARLINS +1.5 (-180).
Over/Under (O/U)
Eight of the Phillies’ last 10 games have had totals of at least 8 runs. In four series between the two teams this season, no more than one game per series finished with a total of 8 or more.
They already had one such game this series.
Only three of the Marlins’ last 14 games had a total of 8 or more.
Take UNDER 7.5 (-108).
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