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The Philadelphia Phillies (14-8) and Cincinnati Reds (12-9) meet Monday at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ballpark to start a 4-game series. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1
Philadelphia is coming off a lengthy and productive homestand. The Phillies went 8-2,concluding with an 8-2 Sunday win against the Chicago White Sox. Philadelphia is 6-0 with a plus-24 run differential over its last half-dozen games.
The Reds swept the Los Angeles Angels 3-0 over the weekend. Over their last 9 games, a streaky Cincy squad has won 3 in a row, then lost 3 in a row then won 3 straight again.
Phillies at Reds projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Hunter Greene
Suarez (3-0, 1.73 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.77 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 26 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 5-0 win vs. Colorado Rockies Tuesday
- Career vs. Reds: 1-0, 2.86 ERA (22 IP, 7 ER), 16 H, 7 BB, 19 K in 7 games (3 starts)
- Owns a 3.32 ERA across 480 career IP
- Has logged a 3.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in road games since 2022
Greene (0-1, 4.35 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start. He has logged a 1.31 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 in 20 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 3-1 loss at Seattle Mariners Tuesday
- Career vs. Phillies: 0-0, 3.86 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K
- Has been hurt by a .348 batting average on balls in play
- Owns a 4.60 ERA over 258 1/3 career IP
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Phillies at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Reds +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The Reds took 2 of 3 from the Phillies over an April 1-3 series in Philadelphia and are 5-3 over their last 8 games against the Phils.
Philadelphia’s recent offensive numbers have been inflated due to some robust clutch hitting performances. How will Suarez bounce back after throwing 112 pitches in a Tuesday shutout over a scuffling Rockies team? He’s backed by a bullpen that has been awful so far (MLB-worst 5.78 ERA).
His mound opposite, Greene, has perhaps deserved a better fate so far. The 24-year-old Reds hurler has done well to limit hard contact, but he’s been hurt by a .348 batting average on balls in play.
The Phillies have had an easy schedule so far. Getting plus money on the home side (FanDuel Sportsbook has Cincinnati at +104) makes for solid value. BACK THE REDS +104.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better leverage can be found on the RL.
Over/Under
The Over is 5-1 across the last 6 Philly-Cincy games.
This contest has just the slightest lean toward a double-digit score. The OVER 8.5 (-110) is worth some partial-unit action. The Reds ML play is the strongest in this match-up.
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