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The Philadelphia Phillies (57-29) and Chicago Cubs (39-48) clash in a Fourth of July showdown Thursday. The matinee contest at Wrigley Field is slated for 2:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 2-0
Phillies pitchers have struck out 22 batters against just 4 walks in the club’s taking the 1st 2 games of this series 6-4 and 5-3. Philadelphia, which has won 3 straight games, owns a 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP since June 22.
Over the last month, the Cubs have been one of the worst teams in baseball. Since June 6, they are 8-17. Chicago has lost 3 straight and is 2-8 in its last 10.
Phillies at Cubs projected starters
LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Jameson Taillon
Sanchez (6-3, 2.41 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 93 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, K in 2-0 win vs. Miami Marlins Friday
- Owns a minuscule 1.38 ERA over his last 6 starts
- Has never faced the Cubs
Taillon (4-4, 3.03 ERA) is lined up for his 14th start. He owns a 1.24 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 74 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-2 loss at Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-4, 8.67 ERA (27 IP, 26 ER), 38 H, 9 BB, 34 K in 7 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Cubs +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Cubs 3
Moneyline
Chicago was the lean/play in this 1st 2 games of this series, but a fade-able Taillon (fortunate home run/fly ball rate for a pitcher that yields frequent aerial contact, .764 OPS allowed against current Philly bats-per ESPN) changes the equation for the getaway-day finale.
PASS, and look to leverage the Phils on a run line play.
Run line/Against the spread
The Phillies have won 7 in a row against the Cubs, and 6 of those wins have been of the multi-run variety.
Chicago owns a weak .667 OPS against southpaws and has the weaker of the 2 bullpens in this matchup. Philadelphia has won 3 straight getaway games and is worth a partial-unit play in this Independence Day finale at Wrigley.
BET THE PHILLIES -1.5 (+140).
Over/Under
The total has gone Over in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games and in 7 of the Phils’ last 10 road tilts. And the last 20 July games played at Wrigley Field, the Over has gone 14-6.
There is some fade lean against both starters in this one, and the Phillies offense owns an .808 OPS over the club’s last 11 games.
BET THE OVER 7.5 (-110).
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