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The Philadelphia Phillies (56-29) and Chicago Cubs (39-47) meet Wednesday at Wrigley Field at 8:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 1-0
The Phillies clubbed 3 doubles and a pair of home runs in prevailing 6-4 in Tuesday’s series opener. It was Philadelphia’s 6th straight win against Chicago’s NL entry.
The scuffling Cubs are 2-7 over their last 9 games and just 15-30 since May 13. Over the 2-7 stretch, Chicago has produced a subpar .336 slugging percentage.
Phillies at Cubs projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Shota Imanaga
Wheeler (9-4, 2.73 ERA) is lined up for his 18th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 105 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-4 loss vs. Miami Marlins Thursday
- Career vs. Cubs: 2-2, 3.66 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 40 H, 14 BB, 46 K in 8 starts
Imanaga (7-2, 3.07 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 85 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-3 win at San Francisco Giants Thursday
- Has registered a 6.89 ERA, .869 OPS allowed over his last 6 starts
- Has never faced the Phillies
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Cubs +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The Phils are just 7-8 over their last 15 road games. Over that span, the Philadelphia offense has filed some higher-strikeout midrange OPS numbers. Peg the Philly offense as being a bit overrated against southpaws. The Phils own a .763 OPS against lefties, but that figure is buoyed by a .318 batting average on balls in play.
The Cubs have played a tough slate so far and figure as being a couple or 3 games better than what shows in their won-loss percentage. And with veteran starters especially, surface stats from past meetings can be quite misleading. Per ESPN, current Cubs batters own an aggregate .807 OPS against Wheeler.
TAKE CHICAGO (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
Better value on the outright play. PASS.
Over/Under
The Over is 10-1-2 in the last 13 July games at Wrigley Field.
Both starters have some significant fade lean; both have expected-ERA figures — numbers based on quality of contact, normalized BABIP, home-run and situational rates — upwards of their surface stats.
On a humid evening at Wrigley Field, BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-110).
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