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The Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) and Chicago Cubs (39-46) open a 3-game holiday-week series at Wrigley Field Tuesday at 8:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Philadelphia won 5-1 in 2023
The Phillies own the top mark in the National League, but they have gone a level 9-9 over their last 18 games. They enter this series after splitting a 4-game weekend set at home against the Miami Marlins Thursday through Sunday.
The Cubs are back at home after a 2-5 road trip. Chicago has barely won a third of its games since mid-May. The Cubs are just 15-29 since May 13.
Phillies at Cubs projected starters
RHP Michael Mercado vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski
Mercado (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 1st start and 2nd career appearance. He struck out 1 batter in a scoreless inning in relief in his June 24 MLB debut at the Detroit Tigers.
- 2024 stats with Triple-A Lehigh Valley: 1-1, 1.71 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 8.37 K/9 in 10 starts and 4 relief appearances
- 2024 road stats with Triple-A Lehigh Valley: 0-0, 1.71 ERA (21 IP, 4 ER), 1.29 WHIP in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances
Wesneski (2-4, 3.60 ERA) makes his 5th start and 22nd appearance. He’s registered a 1.16 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 45 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-3 loss at San Francisco Giants Wednesday
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-0, 1.93 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
- Has walked 7 batters while allowing 6 runs in his last 7 innings of work
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The Phils are just 6-8 over their last 14 road tilts. Over that span, the Philadelphia offense has filed a high-strikeout .702 OPS. That’s a far cry from Philly’s overall .753 OPS for the season (4th in MLB).
The Cubs have played a tough slate so far and figure as being a couple games better than what shows in their won-loss percentage.
CHICAGO (-125) is the lean here, but consider on going in small. The mound matchup leaves much to be desired in the past-performances department.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better relative value can be had on the ML.
Over/Under
Grab the 9.5 runs here before the total drops. The Under has value.
Yes, the pitching matchup makes for a muddy picture, but this series features a Phillies bullpen on a roll (MLB-best 2.27 ERA since June 1) and a Cubs relief corps that figures as better than the 4.32 surface ERA it has on the season. Add to that a 2nd-division offense in that of the home nine and a slowed-down-of-late Phillies lineup.
The total has gone Under in 13 of Chicago’s last 20 games and 5 of the last 6 series meetings at Wrigley.
TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-120).
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