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The Philadelphia Phillies (46-21) and Boston Red Sox (34-34) wrap up a 3-game interleague series at Fenway Park Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Phillies fired out to a 4-0 lead after 3 innings against old friend RHP Nick Pivetta in Wednesday’s game. However, LHP Cristopher Sanchez and the middle relievers couldn’t hold the lead, allowing 8 runs from innings 4 through 6, falling behind 8-4. The Phils tacked on 2 runs late, but still lost 8-6 as the Over (8) easily cashed.
Philadelphia still has a 10-3 record in interleague play, and it hasn’t lost a series against an American League team this season. Boston has managed a 13-11 record against the National League.
The Red Sox have dropped 3 of the past 5 games at Fenway Park, and Boston is just 15-19 at home this season.
The Over result for the Phillies Wednesday snapped a 10-0-1 run to the Under. The total has gone high in 8 of the past 11 outings for the Red Sox.
Phillies at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Nola (8-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 84 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 2-0 home victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers June 5
- 2024 road splits: 4-0, 1.82 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.89 WHIP, .174 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 3 HR, 10 BB, 30 K in 5 starts
Houck (6-5, 1.91 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 85 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 14-2 road victory vs. Chicago White Sox June 6
- 2024 home splits: 2-3, 2.31 ERA (47 IP, 11 ER), 1.00 WHIP, .220 OBA, 1 HR, 7 BB, 44 K in 7 starts
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Phillies at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+136) | Red Sox +1.5 (-164)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 3, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
The PHILLIES (-118) are worth a look in this interleague series finale, but expect to have a tight game throughout.
Nola and Houck should exchange plenty of donuts in this game, with runs at a premium in this battle between 2 potential All-Stars.
It won’t be easy for Philadelphia, though, as Boston has won 4 straight starts with Houck on the hill. Of course, Philly has won 5 in a row with Nola on the bump while going 11-1 in his past 12 outings.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re feeling a pitchers’ duel and like the home side, but you’d like some insurance, the RED SOX +1.5 (-164) aren’t ridiculously priced.
Houck has managed a sub-2.00 ERA at home this season, so the Phillies -1.5 (+136) could have trouble putting up runs on the manual scoreboard in the Green Monster.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the best play on the board in this matchup between Nola and Houck.
The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 6 starts for Nola, and one of those Over results was a game in the rarefied air at Coors Field in Denver May 25, which saw his team back Nola with 8 runs of support.
The Under is 8-2-1 in Houck’s past 11 starts while going 5-1-1 in his 7 home outings. The total has gone low at a 2-0-1 clip in his 3 starts against NL teams, too.
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