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The Philadelphia Phillies (46-22) take on the Baltimore Orioles (45-23) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Oriole Park at Camden Yards at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 2-1 last year
The Phils enter rivalry weekend after losing 2 of 3 at Fenway Park to the Boston Red Sox. They lost 9-3 Thursday as RHP Aaron Nola gave up 8 ER in 3 2/3 IP. DH Kyle Schwarber went 3-for-4 with 3 RBIs. He has his BA up to .249 after hitting .297 last month and .282 so far this month.
The O’s snapped a 6-game winning streak with a 6-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves Thursday night. The Orioles scored 3 in the 7th to pull within 1, but Atlanta polished them off with 2 in the 9th. The O’s and Phils are tied atop of baseball with 5.1 R/game.
Phillies at Orioles projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Kyle Bradish
Suarez (10-1, 1.81 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has an MLB-best 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 79 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-2 home victory Saturday against New York Mets
- 2 career starts vs. BAL: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11 K in 12 IP
Bradish (2-0, 2.62 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 in 34 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 5-0 victory Saturday at Toronto Blue Jays
- 1 career start vs. Phillies: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K July 26
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Phillies at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Orioles -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Phillies at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Phillies 2
Moneyline
I don’t trust Suarez here. Two starts ago, he left after 2 innings from taking a 106-mph liner off his pitching hand, and he allowed a season-high 8 hits to the lowly New York Mets the next time out.
So I like the Orioles here, but they’re a better bet on the RL.
Instead, I’m honing in on KYLE BRADISH OVER 5.5 K’S. For some reason, BetMGM has removed this prop as an option, but competing books have it at Over 5.5 (-110). If/when it returns, I’m good to take the Over even if it steams up to 6.5.
He has 6+ K’s in 5 of his last 6 GS, and his 12.8 K/9 is by far a career high. It’s not necessarily a fluke, either, because his K-rate has gone up each year. The Phils are 14th with 8.18 K’s/game.
Run line/Against the spread
The Orioles’ last 18 wins have been by multiple runs. They’re this year’s version of the 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers where you’re better off betting the RL on them.
Take the ORIOLES -1.5 (+155).
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Over/Under
It’s expected to be a damp, 82-degree evening with an 8-mph gust blowing in from left-center. The Over is 3-6-1 in the last 10 meetings. The Phils are 2-7-1 O/U in their last 10, and the Orioles are 4-4-2.
If this number swells to 7.5, take the Under. However, at an even 7, I do not like this total at all.
PASS.
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