The Philadelphia Phillies (33-34) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (41-26) play the 3rd contest of a 4-game series Wednesday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 3-2
The Phillies routed the Diamondbacks 15-3 on Tuesday after suffering a 9-8 setback in the series opener Monday. Philly piled up 20 hits Tuesday, including 2 home runs and 8 extra-base hits as 7 different Phillies had at least 2 hits and 11 different players collected at least 1 hit.
The 15 runs allowed in Tuesday’s game was Arizona’s highest of the season, and it was just the 5th time the opposition hit double digits against the Diamondbacks. It was a tough way for a 6-game win streak to come to a close.
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Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Merrill Kelly
Suarez (1-2, 4.70 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 30 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 5-4 home win vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
- 2023 Road splits: 1-1, 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER) with a .299 opponent batting average (OBA) in 3 starts
Kelly (8-3, 2.92 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 77 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in an 11-6 road win vs. the Detroit Tigers Friday
- 2023 Home splits: 3-3, 3.56 ERA (43 IP, 17 ER – 6 HR) with a .184 OBA in 7 starts
Phillies at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Diamondbacks -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The DIAMONDBACKS (-135) look like a slam-dunk play, especially due to the pitching matchup.
Kelly has tremendous overall stats while Suarez has struggled. However, this could be much closer than most think, as the Philly southpaw is much better on the road than at home while Kelly has a .500 record at home and has given up 6 of the 8 homers he has allowed this season at Chase Field.
Run line/Against the spread
The PHILLIES +1.5 (-175) is a little on the expensive side, but worth playing lightly.
Philadelphia’s offense was lights out Tuesday and it faces Kelly, who has not been doing a good job of keeping the ball in the yard in his home park.
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Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but play a half-unit at most.
The Over has cashed in 6 of the past 8 games for the Snakes, as they have piled up 56 runs during that span.
Philly has made itself at home at Chase Field, picking up 23 total runs in the first 2 games of the series, and 30 total runs of offense across the past 3 outings.
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