The Philadelphia 76ers (2-2) visit FTX Arena Tuesday to take on the Miami Heat (2-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Philadelphia was fined for violating injury reporting rules for Game 3 as MVP finalist C Joel Embiid made his return to the court. The 76ers won both home games to even the series.
Embiid allows the Sixers to play bully ball on the interior, freeing up shooters. The typically slow-paced Sixers put up 116 points on the Heat in Game 4 behind 31 points from former MVP G James Harden.
The Heat are led by former Sixers F Jimmy Butler who poured in 40 points in Game 4. G Kyle Lowry and G Tyler Herro combining for 17 points doomed Miami.
The Heat have been unstoppable at home as they’ve gone 5-0 in the playoffs so far. They were 34-12 at home during the regular season, tied for the 4th-best home record in the NBA.
76ers at Heat odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line: 76ers +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Heat -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): 76ers +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
76ers at Heat key injuries
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) questionable
Heat
- F P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
- G Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
- G Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
[tipico]
76ers at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 106, 76ers 101
Money line
PASS.
If there is a play here, it’s that the Sixers (+133) money line. That’s more so on the value and the fact this series, with Embiid, should generally have competitive down-to-the-wire games.
That said, I do like the Heat to come out on top and not drop 3 straight contests.
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Against the spread
BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110).
The Heat have been dominant at home. They’ve averaged a 13.4 margin of victory at home this postseason and outscored the Sixers by 14 points in Game 1 and 16 points in Game 2.
Embiid will be back for his first game of the series in South Beach, and he’s been impactful. But, the Heat have been a different animal at home all season long.
Miami is 34-26-1 against the spread (ATS) against conference opponents whereas the 76ers are 28-33-1 ATS. The Heat had the fourth-best regular-season defensive rating.
The Heat also ranked 5th in opponents’ three-point shooting whereas the Sixers are 3rd in three-point percentage.
Given Miami’s ability to limit what Philly is best at along with its dominance at home and success against mutual, in-conference opponents, I’ll take the Heat to cover here.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 208.5 (-107).
The Heat are 1-4 O/U during their playoff run.
I would expect some regression from Harden, who was 6-for-10 from deep in the Sixers’ Game 4 win. Harden was 4-for-19 in the first 3 games. Game 4 was his first time this postseason hitting more than 2 triples.
The Heat, led by dominant defenders like Tucker, Butler and Lowry, should be able to limit Harden. The Heat-Sixers have the slowest pace of any second-round series and both teams rank in the bottom five in pace among all 16 playoff teams as well.
This game shouldn’t be one played in transition. Considering the trends and playstyle, I’ll take the UNDER 208.5 (-107).
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