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A lot of changes have come to the AFC East this offseason. Despite that, Pro Football Focus thinks the Buffalo Bills still have the top roster in the division and are among the best in the entire NFL.
The football analytics outlet produced their complex, head-to-head, roster rankings following the 2023 NFL draft. In that, the Bills slot in at No. 5 overall.
In rounding out the top five, Buffalo trails a few of the usual suspects but PFF mixes things up. The Philadelphia Eagles take the top stop, edging out the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, but they’re not alone. The San Francisco 49ers do as well, sliding in at second while Kansas City sits in third. In fourth is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Regarding the AFC East, the gap does appear to be closing a bit (in PFF’s eyes) as the New York Jets are closeby at No. 7. There is space between the rest, though. The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots are at the 10 and 18 positions, respectively.
Regarding the Bills, here’s PFF’s full breakdown on their 2023 roster, with lots of the analysis banking on quarterback Josh Allen:
Biggest strength in 2023: QB Josh Allen
There isn’t a more do-it-all quarterback in the league right now than Josh Allen. In 2022, he accounted for 46 total touchdowns (38 in the air and eight on the ground) while also putting up the third-highest passing grade (85.8) and highest rushing grade (92.8) among quarterbacks.
Biggest weakness in 2023: Receiver depth
Outside of Stefon Diggs, there aren’t too many pass catchers on the roster that strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. Gabriel Davis will have the occasional big game, but he isn’t much of a volume guy, as his single-game high for receptions in 2022 was six, which he accomplished twice.
X-Factor for 2023: QB Josh Allen
While Allen is as explosive as they come at quarterback, his play style can be a rollercoaster, as his 33 turnover-worthy plays were the most in the NFL. If Allen can bring that number down a bit, we’re looking at one of the most dangerous offenses in football.
Rookie to watch: TE Dalton Kincaid
Despite not drafting a receiver until the fifth round, the Bills managed to snag arguably the 2023 draft’s best pass catcher — regardless of position — in former Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick. Buffalo may run more 12 personnel with Kincaid alongside the incumbent Dawson Knox in order to get the best group of pass catchers on the field.
Over/Under 10.5 win total: Over
It’s going to be difficult to repeat in the competitive AFC East, but Buffalo has come out on top in this division three years in a row. As long as Josh Allen is under center, the Bills should remain the favorites in 2023.
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