The realignment saga continues in the second half of June, in the final days of both the fiscal year and the college sports cycle which ends alongside it. June 30 is the date by which San Diego State needs to leave the Mountain West or pay an exit fee of nearly $16 million more than what it would owe the conference.
Everyone in the college sports world is waiting to see how this game of high-stakes poker plays out. The smart money says it’s more likely than not that San Diego State and SMU will join the Pac-12, but what should logically happen is not what regularly happens. This is college sports, after all.
It’s not a done deal until it’s actually done. We’ll hold off on making specific predictions, though we obviously have our own sense of what is likely and what isn’t.
What we can say is that if the Pac-12 can’t actually secure San Diego State and SMU, it won’t only feel like a defeat for George Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 CEO Group; it will indeed be a defeat.
John Canzano offered this detail at his Substack:
“Nobody I spoke with believes the Pac-12 can eclipse a $32 million-per-school average distribution without including both San Diego State and SMU,” Canzano wrote.
“The networks and streaming services are looking for not only quality programming but quantity in terms of available games. The Pac-12 presidents might want to stay at 10 schools, but they need the inventory that a 12-team conference brings to get paid. That’s important for football as well as basketball.”
Keep in mind that, per Canzano’s reporting, the Pac-12 hasn’t vetted Boise State, Fresno State, or UNLV.
The Pac-12 has explored and gamed out a lot of scenarios. We have no idea if the Pac-12’s media rights deal will reach the target the conference is looking for, but we can say that if San Diego State and SMU aren’t in the conference, there’s no way the Pac-12 will reach or even come close to the price point it wants. The Pac-12 clearly thinks Boise State, Fresno State, and UNLV won’t be remotely as competitive in terms of media dollars as SDSU and SMU will be. All indications point to the Pac-12 being sold on the value of SDSU and SMU. Anything less — or anything else — would rate as a comparative disappointment and a real defeat for the conference on numerous levels.
It’s crunch time. Let’s see whether the Pac-12 brings in this duo or swings and misses.
[lawrence-auto-related count=1 tag=696092269]