A majority of the conference is now exactly one-third of the way through conference play, and things are starting to take shape.
Last week saw both Kansas State and Oklahoma separate themselves as contenders for the conference title, while TCU and Texas bottomed out. Other than that, the major players held the course.
With the big win over Texas, Oklahoma is now favored to win each of the remaining games on its schedule. The Sooners have a 14.3 percent chance to win out, and a projected record of 6-3.
Now for the full conference projections.
The following projections are based on a composite of ten different published rating systems and 20,000 simulations of the remaining Big 12 schedule, updated through week five’s results.
Oklahoma State remains the clear favorite, but Iowa State is knocking on the door to make it a definitive top-two. After that, Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma remain in contention but on the outside looking in.
Oklahoma still has only an 11 percent chance to make the conference championship and a 10 percent chance to win it. These probabilities almost doubled from a week ago, but wins from both Iowa State and Kansas State hampered the effect.
You can see the same groups starting to form in this week’s projection table.
I’ve also looked into the future and can tell you with certainty that this will look almost identical in one week’s time. We’ve got exactly one Big 12 game this weekend, and it’s pitting Kansas against West Virginia, not exactly the most decisive matchup.
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