The No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (20-7, 11-7 Big 12) meet the No. 16 Texas Longhorns (18-7, 11-6) in the Big 12 Men’s College Basketball Tournament championship Saturday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Oklahoma State-Texas odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Oklahoma State +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Texas -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Oklahoma State +2.5 (-110) | Texas -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 144.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Oklahoma State vs. Texas: Three things to know
- Oklahoma State upset No. 9 West Virginia 72-69 in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tourney and No. 2 Baylor 83-74 as an 8.5-point underdog in the semifinals Friday to earn a title game bid. The Cowboys’ victory over Baylor avenged their only loss in the past nine games and they’ve covered all nine of those contests.
- Texas advanced to the Big 12 Championship Game due to an “uncontested” victory against Kansas, which had to pull out of the semifinals because of COVID complications on the team. The Longhorns defeated quarterfinal opponent No. 22 Texas Tech in a 67-66 thriller Friday to win and cover their fourth straight game.
- These teams split the season series 1-1 but Oklahoma State has covered three straight against Texas.
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Oklahoma State vs. Texas: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Oklahoma State 73, Texas 69
Money line (ML)
Both teams are obviously playing very well entering the title game, but the way OKLAHOMA STATE (+125) closed out its semifinal victory over eventual 1-seed Baylor put college basketball on notice.
The Cowboys are going to be a scary team in the NCAA Tournament because they have the Big 12 Player of the Year and probable No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft in SF Cade Cunningham.
He put up 25 and 19 points in the two Oklahoma State-Texas games this season so it’s not like the Longhorns can say they’ve figured Cunningham out and the gravitational pull his skillset has on opposing defenses is staggering.
Finally, perhaps the most important factor in postseason college hoops is free-throw shooting and this is an area where Oklahoma State has an edge.
The Cowboys have the 52nd-ranked FTA/FG rate and the Longhorns are 295th in defensive FTA/FG rate, according to Ken Pom.
GIMME OKLAHOMA STATE (+125) for a quarter-unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET OKLAHOMA STATE +2.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of the money line. The Cowboys have covered nine straight games, three straight vs. the Longhorns and five straight as a dog at a neutral site.
Over/Under (O/U)
According to Pregame.com, roughly 75% of the money is on the UNDER 144.5 (-110), but nearly 80% of the bets placed are on the Over, which tells us that the sharp side of the market (the money) is on the Under.
The hoops’ angle for the Under is both teams average more turnovers per game than assists and play a fair amount of iso-ball that may lead to clunky offensive possessions.
It’s more of a lean but I’ll PUT a half-unit on the UNDER 144.5 (-110).
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