A wise man once said, “Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.” That rings true as the college football world begins its journey to crown a national champion. Before that happens, there are many games, upsets, lofty expectations, and underachievers to sort thru along the way.
Most college football fans who are self-aware enough know that there are only a number of teams that can truly compete for the chance to go to the College Football Playoff. Using ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor, Heather Dinich broke down the 20 teams that have a shot to make the College Football Playoff (ESPN+).
Oklahoma enters the season with an 11.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff and Dinich considers the toughest test for the Sooners their October 8 neutral site matchup with the Texas Longhorns.
What the committee will like: A more balanced team. With offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby reuniting with quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and a veteran defensive staff in coach Brent Venables and coordinator Ted Roof, Oklahoma could be progressing toward a more complete team despite the offensive star power it lost.
What the committee won’t like: Unconvincing wins against unheralded opponents. Last fall, OU beat Tulane 40-35. It needed a last-second field goal to beat West Virginia at home. And the Sooners trailed Kansas by double digits twice. Not every game has to be a lopsided win, but OU has to leave no doubt it’s the better team against unranked opponents. – Dinich, ESPN
Oklahoma checks in with the eighth-best chance to make the playoffs according to the Football Power Index. They come in behind expected contenders Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia. In the tier below them sit Notre Dame, Clemson, Michigan, and Red River rival Texas all with better percentages to make the CFP.
The Red River Showdown could have postseason implications yet again, if Texas enters that game with only one loss (Alabama) or if they somehow enter it undefeated.
2022 sets the Sooners up for a little revenge as Baylor and Oklahoma State enter the season as top 25 programs with their sites set on winning the Big 12. Those matchups could be the difference in Oklahoma competing for the Big 12 title and, with the right record and fortune elsewhere, a CFP playoff spot.
We’re a long way out to the first College Football Playoff rankings. The weeks leading up to the first release will be about building a resume that will stand out. For the Sooners, it’s about winning, and as long as they do that, everything else will take care of itself.
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