It shouldn’t come as any kind of surprise that Oklahoma now controls its destiny in the Big 12 with two games still remaining. In a normal year, it wouldn’t. But after the Sooners rattled off a pair of losses to start conference play, many had given up hope.
My model gave Oklahoma as slim as a five percent chance to win the Big 12 after week five. It would require Oklahoma to run the table the rest of the way, Oklahoma State to lose an extra game, as well as a virtual collapse from either Kansas State or Iowa State.
Looking back on this season, it may be Texas’ win over Oklahoma State that really made this possible. By all accounts, Texas should not have won that game. Five cowboy turnovers opened the door for Texas to steal one and now, almost two months later, Oklahoma State is still paying the price.
Let’s get right into the projections. For comparison’s sake, here’s last week’s outlook.
The following projections are based on a composite of fifteen different published rating systems and 20,000 simulations of the remaining Big 12 schedule, updated through week thirteen’s results.