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The Oklahoma City Thunder (21-6) are on the road Friday to face the Miami Heat (13-11). Tip-off from Kaseya Center is at 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Thunder vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Thunder won 2-0 last season
After having a 5-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with a 97-81 loss in the NBA Cup final to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Thunder bounced back Thursday night for a 105-99 road win over the Orlando Magic as 6-point favorites, resulting in a push.
The Heat have not played since Monday when they lost 125-124 on the road to the Detroit Pistons as 5-point favorites. The loss snapped a 4-game winning streak.
Thunder at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 10:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Thunder -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Heat -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Thunder +1.5 (-120) | Heat -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Thunder at Heat key injuries
Thunder
(Not yet submitted – below was for Thursday’s game)
- C Chet Holmgren (hip) out
- F Jaylin Williams (hamstring) out
Heat
- F Nikola Jovic (ankle) questionable
- G Pelle Larsson (ankle) questionable
- G Josh Richardson (heel) doubtful
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Thunder at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Thunder 108, Heat 105
Moneyline
The Heat are 5-0 when they have a rest advantage like Friday’s game. The Thunder are 4-0 on games with no rest like this one. They are 5-2 with a rest advantage.
The Thunder are 10-3 on the road. Miami is 8-4 this season at home. They have not allowed an opponent to score 100 points in their last 3 games.
I give the Thunder the edge, but since they haven’t had a 1-point win this season, you should look to see if you get better odds with the spread. Until the line shift this morning, that was the case.
There is nothing wrong with betting the Thunder to win at -105 odds and you eliminate the small possibility of a 1-point loss in which they don’t cover.
BET THUNDER (-105).
Against the spread
With only a 1.5-point spread, you get slightly worse odds at -120 on the Thunder, who have not had a 1-point victory or loss this season and have only had 2 ATS losses in their outright wins this season (along with 3 pushes).
The Heat have covered the spread only once in a loss this season.
PASS.
Over/Under
The Thunder’s last 3 games have not even reached 210 total points while the Heat’s last 5 games have all had more than 216 total points.
The Thunder only allow 103.1 points per game, tops in the league.
BET UNDER 216.5 (-110).
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