A popular term in college football in recent years that gets tossed around a lot is a team’s “blue-chip ratio” and how it has a direct impact on winning on the field.
Simply put, a team’s blue-chip ratio is the amount of four and five-star recruits a team signs as opposed to three and two-star ones. If it is above 50%, that team is deemed a legitimate contender being that that has been the case for every national champion since modern recruiting rankings were put into place according to an article by Bud Elliot of 247Sports.
Put simply, to win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA “Blue Chips”) than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.
This has been true basically as far back as modern internet recruiting rankings have existed.
Media will sometimes hype a team which has not met the threshold as a national title contender, but history has shown that is not a smart practice. Think Wisconsin, Baylor, Michigan State, TCU, Utah, etc. over the last decade.
That being said, there are 16 teams that meet that criteria heading into the 2021 season, with Oklahoma being tied for the fifth-highest blue-chip ratio at 66%. The only teams with a higher mark are Alabama (84%), Georgia (80%), Ohio State (79%) and Clemson (67%).
Is this the end-all-be-all for winning a title? Certainly not, but it is a pattern that has been consistent and should wisely be expected to follow suit again next season. Although, as Elliot writes, there is bound to be one team to break through this mold.
No. At some point a team with maybe a high 40s number, a transcendent QB, and great injury luck will bust this. It’s bound to happen.
All of this is good news for the Sooners since they are on the right side of the numbers and their recruiting only seems to be improving under Lincoln Riley. The 2021 Oklahoma squad is expected to compete for a national title by many, and their blue-chip ratio supports that belief.