The Ohio State Buckeyes are not only the top team in the Big Ten according to ESPN’s FPI but also the top team in the country. The Buckeyes, entering the final week of September, are 4-0 on the season, which includes a 17-14 win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last weekend.
However, the No.2 team in the Big Ten is not the Michigan Wolverines, the defending Big Ten champions. Instead, the Penn State Nittany Lions are ranked third in the country in ESPN’s FPI. The Nittany Lions are also 4-0 this season, and while they don’t have a signature win just yet, the Nittany Lions have three wins over Power Five opponents.
The Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions are the only two teams in the Big Ten with over a 25% chance to win and make the College Football Playoffs.
Michigan falls in at the No. 3 spot in the Big Ten overall and 13th in the country. ESPN’s FPI believes the Wolverines have less than a 10.0% chance to win the Big Ten this season. Notably, both Penn State and Michigan have a higher chance to make the playoffs than winning the Big Ten thanks to playing in the same division as each other but also with Ohio State.
In the Big Ten West, the model likes the Wisconsin Badgers as the overwhelming favorite to win their conference, with a 59.9% chance to do so and a 9.7% chance to win the Big Ten. The Iowa Hawkeyes are given an outside shot to do so at 22.7% to win the west with no other program with higher than a 7.4% chance to take the division.
Here’s how ESPN breaks down the Big Ten contenders:
| Team | W-L | Conf. W-L | FPI (Rank) | Win Conf. % | Make Playoff % |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 4-0 | 1-0 | 27.4 (1) | 48.7% | 60.3% |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 4-0 | 2-0 | 23.9 (3) | 26.9% | 33.7% |
| Michigan Wolverines | 4-0 | 2-0 | 18.6 (13) | 9.8% | 11.6% |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 3-1 | 1-0 | 10.8 (28) | 9.7% | 0.2% |
| Maryland Terrapins | 4-0 | 1-0 | 9.4 (30) | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 3-1 | 0-1 | 6.6 (38) | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2.9 (49) | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 3-1 | 1-1 | 2.9 (50) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 2-2 | 0-1 | 2.2 (54) | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0.8 (58) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 2-2 | 0-1 | -0.4 (65) | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 1-3 | 0-1 | -0.8 (67) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 2-2 | 1-1 | -1.3 (72) | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 2-2 | 1-1 | -2.1 (75) | 0.0% | 0.0% |