There are just two weeks left in the college football season, and one of those is just conference championship games. Ohio State looks to be closing in on a College Football Playoff spot. Now it’s time to look at what the Buckeyes should root for to ensure they get in, even if they don’t win their last two games. And, maybe, we can touch on what to root for to get a preferred matchup in the semifinals.
At this point, we first have to figure out exactly what case Ohio State is rooting for. The Buckeyes are a Playoff lock with a win next week in the Big Ten Championship Game, even if they lose to Michigan. So, basically, Ohio State is rooting for the scenario that can allow it to get into the Playoff with a Big Ten Championship Game loss.
We’ll touch on it more later, but an important starting point for Ohio State is Wisconsin beating Minnesota. If the Golden Gophers win out, they’re in the Playoff. A Wisconsin win means that the Buckeyes, at worst, will be the Big Ten’s only one-loss team, so Ohio State should stay ahead of Wisconsin even with a loss to the Badgers.
Improving the resume overall will be important if a 12-1 non-Big Ten champion Ohio State team wants in the Playoff, so wins by Miami (Oh) and FAU will be useful. A win by Cincinnati over Memphis is even more important, as that would likely lock up a year-end ranking for the Bearcats, and keep alive their chances of ending in the Top 15 or better.
Ultimately, though, for Ohio State to get in the Playoff in this case, it needs there to not be four other contenders with better resumes. Right now, the teams with potentially better resumes are:
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Utah
5. Oklahoma
6. Baylor
7. Alabama
Little things might matter, because if it comes to splitting hairs between a 12-1 Ohio State or a 12-1 Clemson (or a 12-1 Alabama), the more points of contrast in Ohio State’s favor, the better. We’ll focus on that later. For now, let’s get the big things out of the way. At least four of these teams need to have a resume worse than a 12-1 Ohio State (with a loss to Wisconsin) will have. Let’s break them down.