The Oakland Athletics (46-31) head over the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge Friday to start a three-game interleague set with the San Francisco Giants (48-26). Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Athletics vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
LHP Sean Manaea makes his 16th start for the Athletics. Manaea is 6-3 with a 3.01 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 11 K Sunday at the New York Yankees.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 61 at-bats with a .262/.274/.459 slash line, 10/1 K/BB, 1 HR and 8 RBIs.
RHP Johnny Cueto is on the rubber for the Giants. Cueto is 5-3 with a 4.05 ERA (60 IP, 27 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 over 11 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 5 K vs. the Philadelphia Phillies June 18.
- vs. Athletics on the current roster: 44 at-bats with a .205/.222/.364 slash line, 7/1 K/BB, 2 HR and 4 RBIs.
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Athletics at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Giants -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+140) | Giants +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Athletics 6, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
BET the ATHLETICS (-115) for 1 unit because Oakland swept the Giants when these teams met in San Francisco last season, Manaea is a far better starting pitcher than Cueto and the “sharps” are backing the Athletics.
First of all, Cueto has a much higher K/BB rate vs. bad teams compared to when he faces teams with a winning record. Cueto has issued 10 walks against lineups for teams above-.500 but just one walk vs. teams below-.500.
This could be bad news against an Athletics lineup that is patient at the plate (sixth in BB/K rate) and is very productive vs. right-handed pitching (sixth in wRC+).
Furthermore, several of Cueto’s advanced pitching numbers against Oakland’s lineup (FIP, wOBA, K% and exit velocity) are worse than his career averages.
Also, Manaea’s pitching peripherals vs. active San Francisco batters are much better than Cueto’s against current Oakland hitters.
Manaea has a 2.46 FIP, .302 expected opponent’s wOBA and .429 expected slugging percentage vs. the Giants (52 plate appearances). Cueto has a 5.88 FIP, .365 expected opponent’s wOBA and .580 expected slugging percentage against Oakland (30 plate appearances).
Manaea is also coming off perhaps his best start of 2021 where he had a season-high 11 strikeouts against the Yankees and a season-best 0.15 FIP.
Not only that, but it helps Manaea that he gets to pitch against this tough Giants lineup in San Francisco because the National League no-DH rule makes it easier for Manaea to navigate the Giants batters.
Lastly, the line opened with Oakland being even-money, but more than three-fourths of the money wagered is on the Athletics, which caused oddsmakers to move Oakland up to the favorite (according to Pregame.com).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the ATHLETICS -1.5 (+140) for a half unit because Oakland’s lineup can create margin in this game against a flimsy San Francisco bullpen, which is 24th in WAR and has a very fortunate .255 BAbip (second lowest in MLB).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because I prefer the Athletics sides more than the total in this game and the situational trends are all over the place.
If anything, I slightly “lean” to the Under since that’s where the presumed “sharp” money is whereas the public is backing the Over.
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