My pick is in, and it’s too late to turn back. I’ll simply have to live with the increasingly uneasy feeling I have about taking the Los Angeles Chargers +4 on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.
It’s not regret I’m feeling, rather the realization that Keenan Allen’s absence has the potential to make a cover a lot harder. But rather than allowing this inner-conflict to fester, I’ll dive head-first into the pick and go over some of the reasons I think the Chargers will cover the spread, which is up to 4.5 points at some sportsbooks.
First off, they played the Chiefs extremely close in both games last season, winning the first by six points and losing the second in overtime after holding a late lead in the fourth quarter. Justin Herbert threw for a combined six touchdowns and just one interception in those games, and it was Mike Williams, not Allen, who led the team in receiving. Which brings me to my next point.
#LACvsKC game status
OUT – Keenan Allen, Donald Parham Jr
QUESTIONABLE – JC Jackson
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 14, 2022
Williams may or may not be a No. 1 receiver, but he led the Chargers in yards and touchdowns last season. The attention Allen gets obviously makes his job a lot easier, but Williams is a big-bodied possession guy who can do the same for LA’s other receivers. Consider that six players had the same amount of targets as Williams against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. So the Chargers and Herbert have other guys they believe capable of making plays.
That group includes running back Austin Ekeler, who the Chiefs also have to account for as a runner. And tight end Gerald Everett, who scored a touchdown in Week 1 and is a good bet to score again with +260 odds at Tipico.
Finally, the Chargers are a better defensive team than the Arizona Cardinals. Patrick Mahomes will have a harder time putting up 44 points this week with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack flying off the edges and Derwin James and potentially J.C. Jackson roaming around in the secondary. Three different players intercepted Derek Carr in Week 1. LA won’t hold the Chiefs down in the same way it did Vegas, which is why I’d stay away from the moneyline. But they won’t get blown away either.
This was actually therapeutic. I feel a lot better about my Chargers pick now. I think they cover in a tight finish that stays under 54.5 points.