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The LA Dodgers welcome the San Diego Padres to Dodger Stadium Saturday for the first of their best-of-5 NLDS series. First pitch is set for 8:38 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoffs series: 0-0; season series: Padres won 8-5
The Dodgers won the NL West and finished with the top seed in the entire league. Los Angeles finished the regular season on fire, winning 5 straight, 2 of those of which were against the Padres. It scored double digits in 2 of its last 3 games. The Dodgers were the second-best home team in the majors, ending with a 52-28 record. They won 5 of their last 7 at home. Los Angeles is led by DH Shohei Ohtani, who ended the season with a team-high 54 home runs and 130 RBIs.
The Padres, who finished 2nd in the NL West, had the best record of any non-division winner. They beat the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back games at home to advance to the NLDS. They won those games a combined 9-4 and have won 4 of their last 5 games, including the playoffs. They lost RHP Joe Musgrove in the process, though, and he’ll miss all of next season due to Tommy John surgery. San Diego has won 6 of its last 9 games on the road. It is led by 3B Manny Machado, who finished the regular season with 29 home runs and 105 RBIs.
Padres at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024. He ended with a 1.07 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 189 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss to the Dodgers Sept. 25
- 2024 away stats: 8-4, 3.83 ERA (103 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 19 starts
- Career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 2.61 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 4 starts
Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) made 18 starts this season. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-2 road win over the Colorado Rockies Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 3-1, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 12.00 ERA (6 IP, 8 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 2 starts
Padres at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Dodgers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Padres 2
Moneyline
BET DODGERS (-140).
The Dodgers have performed well recently with Yamamoto on the mound. They have won his last 3 starts. Los Angeles also has bats that are red hot, scoring a total of 26 in its last 3-game series and even putting up 11 on the Padres in their 2 games before that. The Dodgers have also been among the best in the country at home, so they should get a boost from that as well.
The Padres had the kryptonite for most of the season against the Dodgers, but they won just 2 of 5 to close the regular season and has their Wild Card series at home as well. San Diego has scored 5 or fewer runs in 9 straight games and has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of its last 7. Couple it all together and back DODGERS (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Dodgers are the run-line favorite here, but 4 of the 13 games between the 2 teams were 1-run games. They aren’t worth playing on the spread. The Padres are far too expensive as a run-line underdog as well.
Avoid the spread and take a moneyline option.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
At this level, both teams have strong starting pitchers taking the mound. That said, the Dodgers have gone Under in 3 of their last 6 games and have allowed 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4.
While their offense has been hot, in their last series against the Padres, the Dodgers scored just 13 runs in all 3 games. The Padres split their Wild Card series 1-1 O/U and are 3-6 O/U in their last 9 games.
Take UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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