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The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet in Game 1 of their best-of-5 NLDS Saturday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 4:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Phillies won 7-6
The Mets put together an impressive 40-27 run after the All-Star break to secure a spot in the postseason. Their momentum carried them into an NL Wild Card Series with the Milwaukee Brewers. In dramatic fashion, 1B Pete Alonso delivered a clutch 3-run homer in the top of the 9th inning, pushing New York to a thrilling victory. With the win, the Mets advanced to the divisional round for the first time since 2015, reigniting hopes of a deep playoff run.
The Phillies enjoyed an outstanding first half of the season. They posted a 62-34 record before the All-Star break, fueled by an impressive team batting average of .257. Unfortunately, a 33-33 finish after the break let the LA Dodgers surpass them for the best record in baseball. Still, Philadelphia has now reached the divisional round for the third year in a row, showing their consistent competitiveness. They’ll aim to rediscover their early-season success as they push for a deeper playoff run.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Senga made 1 start this season. He allowed 2 ER on 2 hits and 1 walk with 9 K’s in 5 1/3 innings in an 8-4 home win over the Atlanta Braves July 26.
- Strained his left calf during his 2024 season debut
- Missed 1st half of season due to shoulder and triceps injuries
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-1, 1.46 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.73 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in 2 starts
- Has never pitched in postseason
Wheeler (16-7, 2.57 ERA) made 32 starts this season. He posted a 0.96 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 200 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 11 K in 6-3 loss at Washington Nationals Sept. 28
- 2024 vs. Mets: 0-1, 1 road start (Sept. 22), 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 2-1 loss
- Career vs. Mets: 5-5, 3.56 ERA (96 IP, 38 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 15 starts
- Career postseason stats: 4-3, 2.42 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 36 H, 5 HR, 10 BB, 68 K in 11 games (10 starts)
Mets at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 3, Orioles 2
Moneyline
BET METS (+155).
Momentum is everything in the postseason, and right now, the Mets are riding a wave of it.
Philadelphia, on the other hand, has been idle for a week, which could leave it a bit rusty for Game 1.
The Mets have been battling with their backs against the wall for much of the second half, and they’ve proven time and again that they thrive under pressure. Their Game 3 win against the Brewers was nothing short of impressive; teams entering the 9th inning trailing in winner-take-all postseason games were 7-105 and just 2-82 when down multiple runs. The Mets turned those odds on their head.
While the Phillies did edge the regular-season series 7-6, the Mets had the edge down the stretch, taking 3 of the last 4 matchups. They even managed to beat Wheeler in his lone start against them this season.
With momentum on their side, grit, and something that feels like destiny, the Mets look primed to take Game 1. Plus, getting them at favorable odds makes this pick even more appealing.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’ll keep my bet to Mets ML getting plus odds.
Over/Under
PASS.
Betting the total feels risky with the line set at 7 runs. Despite the Over hitting in 5 of the last 7 meetings and the Phillies ending the regular season on a streak of Overs, the playoffs are a different story. Postseason games tend to be tense, low-scoring affairs.
While my lean might be toward the Under given the circumstances, it’s not worth the gamble. I’d rather avoid the total altogether and stick to betting the ML.
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