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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies close out their best-of-7 NL Championship Series Tuesday. First pitch in Game 7 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Tied 3-3
Arizona beat the Phillies 6-1 in Monday’s Game 6 to force a 7th game. The Diamondbacks have won 3 of 4 after falling behind in the series 2-0. On Monday, the Arizona bullpen threw 4 scoreless innings in protecting an early lead set up by 2 home runs and a triple off Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola.
The Phillies lost at home for just the 2nd time since Sept. 21; they are now 12-2 over that stretch. An offense with an OPS approaching .800 over the last month has been held under 2 runs just twice since Sept. 15; both times were in this series.
The winner will meet the Texas Rangers in the World Series.
Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Pfaadt went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 18 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 96 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K in 2-1 win vs. Phillies in Thursday’s NLCS Game 3 — his only career start vs. Philadelphia
- 2023 road stats: 1-4, 5.04 ERA in 50 IP
- Postseason: 2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 IP, all this October
Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 22 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 loss vs. Diamondbacks in Thursday’s NLCS Game 3
- 2023 home stats: 1-3, 5.45 ERA in 66 IP across 12 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 3.20 ERA in 25 1/3 IP (2022-23)
- Postseason: 0.94 ERA in 28 2/3 IP (2022-23)
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Diamondbacks at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140) | Phillies -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
Arizona was a near-.500 club on the road the last couple months of the regular season, and the Phillies have looked sharp at home for the better part of the last 2 months.
This matchup is an encore of Game 3 when Pfaadt and Suarez dueled in the desert. Nether went 6 innings, and the bullpens were involved more than the bats in a 2-1 D-backs triumph.
Look for more offense in this game, but these prices and this pitching match-up (not much leverage on either side) make Game 7 perhaps the least attractive play of the series for a side.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 53. This series has had a pair of 1-run games, both won by Arizona.
PASS.
Over/Under
Monday’s game cashed on an Under 7.5. But across Arizona’s previous 4 road games, the Over went 3-1. The Over also had gone 3-1 in Philly’s 4 previous home games.
The largest analytics-generated actual-vs.-expected lean in this matchup is in the bullpens. With a significant fade against both. Both have gotten away with shaky walk rates, perhaps-lucky HR rates on fly balls, and overly tidy percentages of stranded runners. Both pens have expected ERA figures at around a run higher than surface numbers being registered.
The back end of the Arizona pen — many parts anyway — will be working a 2nd straight game.
A slight outward, batter-helping breeze is in the weather forecast. And 2 pitching components — Pfaadt and the Phillies bullpen — trend toward yielding more fly balls than average. Albeit in a small sample, Pfaadt has been frequently barreled up for a pitcher who owns a 2.13 ERA this postseason.
BET THE OVER 8.5 (-105).
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