The San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday for Game 4 of their best-of-7 National League Championship Series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 7:45 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
NLCS: Phillies lead 2-1
Regular-season series: Phillies won 4-3
The Padres came in 2nd in the NL West Division with an 89-73 record, only behind the Dodgers (111-51), who they defeated in the NLDS 3 games to 1. San Diego eliminated L.A. after taking the final 2 games of the series.
The Phillies placed 3rd in a loaded NL East Division with an 87-75 record, behind the Braves (101-61) and the Mets (101-61). After sweeping the Cardinals 2-0 in a Wild Card Series, they eliminated the Braves 3 games to 1 in the NLDS — also winning the final 2 games like the Padres did in their Division Series.
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Padres at Phillies projected starters
RHP Mike Clevinger vs. LHP Bailey Falter
Clevinger went 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 114 1/3 IP in 22 starts and 1 relief outing in the regular season.
- Losing pitcher in Game 1 of NLDS vs. Dodgers, allowing 5 runs (4 ER) on 6 H (1 HR), 2 BB in 2 2/3 IP with 3 K
- Career postseason: 0-1, 5.74 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.98 WHIP, 4 HR, 17 BB, 19 K in 7 relief outings for Cleveland and 2 appearances (1 start) for San Diego
- 2022 vs. Phillies: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (5 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 3-0 road victory May 17
Falter went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 84.0 IP in 20 appearances (16 starts) in the regular season.
- Making 1st career postseason appearance
- Facing Padres 1st time in 2-year career
- Career regular-season: 8-5, 4.36 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 8.3 K/9 in 42 appearances (17 starts)
Padres at Phillies odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:47 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Phillies -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Phillies 4
Moneyline
LEAN PADRES (-108). This is the riskiest play of my 3 suggestions.
The odds are close to even for a reason. These 2 clubs are so evenly matched, it’s hard to pick a winner for any of the games. Few people saw either of these teams making it this far in the playoffs, and don’t be shocked when these teams continue to surprise you.
Either team could win this game, but I don’t see San Diego losing 2 in a row, even if it is in Philadelphia. Expect Padres 3B Manny Machado and RF Juan Soto to show up big time in this one.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).
Each of the first 3 games in this series have been decided by 2 or more runs, and I don’t expect that to change in Game 4. While it won’t be easy for the Padres to cover the spread in Citizens Bank Park, in order for them to win the game, they will have to. Even with Soto playing poorly both in the field and at the plate (.182 batting average — 2 for 11, 1 RBI), he will need to show up Saturday for them to win.
Expect the less experienced pitcher (Falter) to have a tough time in this outing.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-130).
This is the BEST BET. Only 1 of the 3 NLCS games went Over 8.5 runs, and it won’t happy Saturday either.
So far in this series, the team that had the big inning has won the game. That should continue here. The Padres can’t let the home crowd get into the game. If it turns into a high-scoring affair with a lot of excitement on both ends — like Game 2, which the Padres won 8-4 — San Diego will lose.
The Philadelphia crowd will play a major role, but as long as the Padres can silence the home fans, Game 4 will stay UNDER 8.5 (-130).
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