[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies meet Tuesday to continue their best-of-7 NL Championship Series. First pitch in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park is at 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Phillies lead 1-0
Arizona got to the NLCS by sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in a Wild Card series and the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 in an NL Division Series. The Diamondbacks tasted their 1st postseason loss Monday, culling together just 4 hits in losing 5-3 in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are 7-1 with a plus-31 run differential in October. They have good things going on the mound (October ERA of 1.52) and at the plate (.911 OPS in October). Philadelphia is also playing well at home in front of a frenzied fan base. The Phils are 11-1 at home since Sept. 21.
Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters
RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Kelly went 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.19 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 177 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 11-2 win at Los Angeles Dodgers Oct. 7, his postseason debut
- 2023 regular-season road stats: 7-4, 4.07 ERA in 84 IP across 15 starts
- Career starts vs. Phillies: 1-1, 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 IP (2019-23)
Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-2 win vs. Atlanta Braves last Wednesday
- 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 2-2, 7.67 ERA in 27 IP (2015-23)
- Postseason: 3.76 ERA in 38 1/3 IP (2022-23)
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Diamondbacks at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 6:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The Phils are on a roll. There is some fade to Merrill’s surface line. The Arizona righty benefited from a .279 batting average on balls in play during the regular season (.246 BABIP in inning leadoff situations, .267 BABIP with runners in scoring position). That all points to an artificially low ERA on the surface. And he might be overrated by some bettors after his good line in the NLDS game against the Dodgers, a club that had been off for 5 days before that game.
Over his last 4 efforts (regular and postseason combined), Nola has clocked a 1.78 ERA and 28 K against just 2 BB in 25 1/3 IP. He’s the more October-battle-tested pitcher in this match-up.
Arizona isn’t too far removed from going 27-28 over its final 55 games of the regular season.
Run, don’t walk, to get in on their PHILLIES (-165) play. Its almost surely a tag that will get pricier.
Run line/Against the spread
The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 20.5% more (53). In a game where there is some fade to the bullpens, AVOID the run line.
Over/Under
The Over is 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings. There is some fade to both bullpens in this matchup. And to the Arizona starter. But weather conditions are a bit cooler, and Nola could bend this number down with a dominant night of which he’s capable.
PASS.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]