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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies meet Monday to open their best-of-7 NL Championship Series. First pitch in Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park is at 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Phillies won 4-3
Arizona got to the NLCS by sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in a Wild Card series and the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 in an NL Division Series. The Diamondbacks’ 5 straight wins are on the heels of the club losing 4 straight to end the regular season. Arizona was under-.500 after Aug. 1 (27-28), so its postseason run is a surprise.
The Phillies have advanced to this series after a 2-0 Wild Card win over the Miami Marlins and a 3-1 NLDS triumph over the best-record-in-the-NL Atlanta Braves. Including its regular-season finale, Philadelphia is 6-1 with a plus-29 run differential in October.
Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters
RHP Zac Gallen vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Gallen went 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA across 34 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.12 WHIP, 2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 210 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-2 win at Los Angeles Dodgers last Monday
- 2023 regular-season road stats: 5-6, 4.42 ERA in 108 IP across 18 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 3-1, 2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 IP (2019-23)
- Postseason: 3.12 ERA in 11 1/3 IP (2023)
Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 10 K in 5-4 loss at Atlanta Braves last Monday
- 2023 regular-season home stats: 5-2, 4.13 ERA in 89 1/3 IP across 13 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 3-2, 3.13 ERA in 31 2/3 IP (2019-23)
- Postseason: 2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 IP (2022-23)
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Diamondbacks at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
In his 2 postseason starts, Gallen’s walk rate has been up and his swinging-strike rate has been down.
In the 2nd half of the season, Wheeler logged a 3.08 ERA on the strength of a .596 OPS allowed.
Wheeler has the form; Arizona is not that far removed from being a near-.500 team for long stretches. The Phils have a good thing going in their home yard, where they are 10-1 since Sept. 21.
The price here offers leverage: BACK THE PHILLIES (-165).
Run line/Against the spread
The average MLB club played 44 one-run games during the season. The Phillies played 20.5% more (53). In a game where there is some fade to the bullpens, AVOID the run line.
Over/Under
The Over is 6-2-2 across the last 10 meetings.
There is some fade to both bullpens in this matchup. Both have favorable rates around the margins that are difficult to hold or repeat. Both starters are up in their innings from last season — Wheeler more so, but Gallen is just 2 years removed from 120 IP (and has 220-plus in 2023).
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the better Over pricing here: TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-102).
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