The field of teams in Super Bowl LVI contention has been whittled down to four and each has a legitimate reason to believe they’re going to hoist the Lombardi Trophy Feb. 13 in Los Angeles. For that to happen, star players are going to have to step up and be heard from. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Championship Week and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
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Championship Week prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:28 a.m. ET.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase OVER 85.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Bengals know that the Chiefs aren’t going to shoot themselves in the foot as often as they did earlier in the month when the Bengals beat the Chiefs in Cincinnati. Chase had one of the biggest games in NFL history in that win, catching 11 passes for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. Considering this 85.5 number, while high, it’s one-third of his previous production. He posted those huge numbers for a reason – Kansas City is beat up in the secondary and it wasn’t great when it was fully healthy. The Chiefs will likely try to double Chase when possible, but it won’t be something they can do all day. One big catch by Chase for 30 or more yards will likely be all that is needed to hit the Over because he will get his opportunities, especially if the Bengals fall behind early.
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Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-114)
Hill is always one of my favorite players to take the Over on because of his insane explosiveness. If he gets free over the middle or deep down the sidelines, he is capable of hitting this number with only two or three receptions. In the first meeting, Hill was consistently doubled. Head coach Andy Reid is known for making adjustments and the Chiefs will get their downfield shots to their speedy star receiver. Even a bubble screen can be a “take it to the house” moment for Hill, so hitting 80 yards in the most important game of the season should be a minimum expectation for Kansas City’s most dangerous playmaker.
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle UNDER 4.5 receptions (+107)
This is a tough one because Kittle is a mismatch waiting to happen. The Rams are coming into this NFC title game with two defensive goals in mind – having CB Jalen Ramsey shadow 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (even in the slot) and squeeze coverage on Kittle. The 49ers tight end has done a lot of damage in his career against the Rams, primarily because he has been single-covered. Catching 5 passes in a game is routine for Kittle, but QB Jimmy Garoppolo would be ill-advised to force passes into double coverage and Kittle will be seeing his share of that. In an ideal world for the 49ers, they only throw 25 passes and complete about 15 to 17. If you look at it from that perspective, 5 passes going to Kittle is asking a lot.
Los Angeles Rams WR Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-114)
At midseason it seemed like OBJ was going to be a reclamation project. He had complained his way out of Cleveland and was a free agent in November. His first game with the Rams was against the 49ers and he was used sparingly. In the season finale, it was the same thing. But once in the postseason, he has become a favorite target of QB Matthew Stafford. With WR Cooper Kupp demanding safety help, OBJ has enjoyed a Renaissance of sorts. On three drives against Tampa Bay, Beckham was the target of quick-hitter passes to get the drive started. He’s averaging 5 catches a game in the playoffs and, if he catches 5 against the 49ers, it will be hard to keep him Under 55.5 yards.
San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell scores a touchdown (+115)
The “anytime touchdown” prop bet is one of the unsung bets someone can make. You typically have a good idea who is most likely to score a TD and often you can get return of more than your original wager. At their core, the 49ers are a power run team. Points will be at a premium against the Rams and, while Samuel has been stealing Mitchell’s thunder in the red zone as a rusher, Mitchell has a very good number for a featured back on a run-first team. Samuel is starting to show signs of being beaten up as a runner who has played his career as a wide receiver. The 49ers are likely going to play this one tight to the vest and, if they get inside the 5-yard line, will be more likely to use Mitchell as their drive-closer.
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