The Minnesota Vikings are set to make a trade up in the 2024 NFL draft to go get their quarterback of hte future. When you look at trading up in the NFL draft, there are a lot of things to consider.
Who are you moving up for?
How strong is the draft class this year and next year?
Will the team you trade with view future assets as less than current assets?
Historically, future assets cost a round less than assets in hand. That is a likely reason why the Vikings ended up making a trade for the 23rd overall pick for this year. It would theoretically make a trade down more enticing for a team in the top five. When devaluing picks, the idea is that they get devalued one round per year out. That would make a 2025 first round pick worth a second and a 2026 first round pick worth a third.
With this inforamtion in mind, how do we quantify the quarterback tax? Is there one and how much is it? I took a look at the quarterback tax by looking at both valuing all the picks at their current year price and by devaluing them in future years going back to 2012. For this, we are using the Rich Hill trade chart which is based on historical precedent with draft pick trades.